(News Bulletin 247) – Against the background of the ambivalent message contained in the Minutes of the Fed, awaiting important figures on the tensions on the American employment, and with the fear of a rebound of inflation in Germany and France in January 2023, the currency pair Euro / Dollar was sailing at seen Thursday, in the immediate vicinity of its 20-day moving average (in dark blue), whose orientation is flattening.
The traditional record of the latest FOMC proceedings suggests that federal rates could remain high, with no indication of the terminal rate, for an extended period, to combat “unacceptably high” inflation.
Inflation still under the threat of strong tensions on the employment front, whose federal report for the month of December is expected tomorrow, the statistical highlight of this second part of the week. The consensus is counting on a stabilization of the unemployment rate at 3.7% of the active population, and 200,000 job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture), compared with the 263,000 creations in November. A precious taste is expected this Thursday at 2:15 p.m. with the publication of the results of the survey by the private human resources firm ADP.
On this side of the Atlantic, the rise in prices in France reached 5.9% over one year in December, against 6.2% in November, according to the provisional estimate published by INSEE on Wednesday. This decline in prices in France follows the announcement on Tuesday of a more significant price slowdown than expected in December in Germany. The risk of a jump at the start of the year, before a more frank relaxation, remains real, according to the warnings of the Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0615 around.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The break of the 20-day moving average (in dark blue), which has served us up to now as a perfectly materialized trailing stop, requires cutting long positions, pending a relevant entry point. . However, no pronounced bearish reversal pattern has been identified.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0435 USD and the resistance at 1.0746 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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