(News Bulletin 247) – The 7,000 points were “held” yesterday, in the absence of benchmarks from Wall Street, closed due to a public holiday (Commemoration of the birth of Martin Luther King). The flagship index of the Paris market, the CAC 40, managed to grab 0.28% to 7,043 points, in volumes that were legitimately down, with the support, in particular, of Teleperformance (+2.00% to 250.4 euros), Veolia Environnement (+2.27% to 27.47 euros), Thalès (+2.48% to 115.65 euros), and Carrefour (+4.59% to 17.325 euros).
No major macroeconomic figures were on the agenda yesterday. It will become denser as of Tuesday with the German ZEW and the NY Fed manufacturing index (index Empire State).
The market continues to capitalize on the feeling of relief caused last week by a confirmed and significant slowdown in the rise in prices across the Atlantic. As a reminder, the consumer price index in the United States, for the widest product base, came out perfectly on target, at +6.5% on an annual basis.
“In the United States, inflation data and wage trends reinforce the hypothesis of a Fed rate hike limited to 25 basis points in February”, analyzes Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton BFT Investment Managers. “SMEs confirm that monetary tightening is starting to bite, testify to a lesser shortage of labor and a marked easing of prices.”
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0820. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $79.20.
To follow in priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, the ZEW index of confidence in the German economy at 11:00 a.m. and the Empire State manufacturing index at 2:30 p.m. For the time being, the market welcomes Chinese GDP in the fourth quarter with relief, up 2.9% at an annualized rate, well beyond the expectations of economists and analysts surveyed.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
This ability to close exactly on the weekly highs is interesting at this stage (S1), and must be confirmed by the volumes and the sector federation to consider a more lasting grip on the buying side. In the absence of such confirmations, entry into a highly volatile consolidation pattern, with an uncertain exit direction, is the preferred option. In the immediate future in any case, no divergence between price and oscillatory RSI is to be noted.
The issue on Friday 01/13 was once again the validation of a close close to the weekly highs (S2). This ability has been validated. The bottom bias remains bullish. However, if the aforementioned divergence is not actually visible in daily data, it is in hourly data, prompting us to exercise restraint.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7422.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 6760.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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