(News Bulletin 247) – The Dollar suddenly gained a few pips against the Euro on Friday, following the publication of the monthly federal employment report (NFP report), which was followed by a rise in 10-year Treasuries. However, the report does not show a stronger than expected increase in wage dynamics. But other elements militate for a chronically high degree of tension on private employment across the Atlantic.
In detail, the private sector would have created nearly 520,000 jobs in the first month of the year, against 260,000 in December, and the unemployment rate, expected to rise very slightly to 3.6%, came out down. to 3.4% of the working population. Enough to prove J Powell right, in his warning this week. However, the moderation in wage increases is welcomed with relief. This runaway job creation, coexisting with a very low unemployment rate, casts doubt on a future acceleration in wage increases.
The Fed rightly signaled its mistrust of tensions over employment after the FOMC last week, auguring further rate hikes, after the Fed Funds hike of 25 bps on Wednesday. “signals further hikes to counter the risks posed by labor market tensions. if the phenomenon is slow.” analyzes Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, Head of Research and Strategy at BFT IM.
Conversely, despite the clear reinforcement of the “hawkish” tone by the ECB and by President Lagarde during the press conference [jeudi], the market’s reaction suggests that investors doubt the Bank’s guidance. Eurozone rates fell after the announcement: 10-year government bond yields fell 20 basis points in Germany, 21 basis points in France and 32 basis points in Italy. , note the strategists of ING.
Finally, Sino-American tensions are weighing on risky asset classes overall at the start of the week, a family of assets of which the single currency is a part. Sino-American tensions weigh. The United States shot down a Chinese balloon that had been flying over their soil for several days on Saturday, calling it a “spy” balloon, which Beijing denies, assuring that it was a weather surveillance aircraft that had deviated from its trajectory. The Chinese government said on Monday that the United States had “seriously affected and damaged” relations between the two countries and the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken postponed his visit to Beijing.
In terms of statistics on Monday, few things to eat, apart from the Sentix index of investor confidence in the Euro Zone, up to -8.0 points, although still clearly in negative territory.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0770 approximately.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The bullish bias is not threatened at this stage. Simply, the pot is ebbing towards its long moving average, with no tangible sign of a buying entry point. Neutral opinion retained.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0645 USD and the resistance at 1.1190 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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