(News Bulletin 247) – This article, in free access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team of News Bulletin 247. To not miss any opportunity, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
The Hollywood suspense of the umpteenth episode of the negotiations on raising the American debt ceiling, combined with a very poor macroeconomic statistical publication, will have weighed on the debates yesterday. The CAC (+0.05% to 7,418 points) owes its closing in extremis in the green thanks to Alstom (+5.23%) and Axa (+2.43%).
The railway equipment manufacturer is carried by positive analyst ratings on its course, while the insurer has seen its premiums settle in line with expectations but its solvency ratio has thwarted the forecasts.
The market is still waiting for additional visibility on the negotiations in Congress on raising the debt ceiling. As a reminder, in the absence of an agreement, the country would enter a new period of shutdown (closure), during which certain federal public services would be stopped.
This Tuesday, “President Joe Biden is expected to receive members of Congress to discuss the US debt ceiling, following the postponement of the meeting, which should be held at the end of last week. Janet Yellen still sees June 1 as the date on which the United States will no longer be able to finance the functioning of the State, if the debt ceiling is not raised”, notes Vincent Boy, market analyst IG France.
“The negotiations concerning the American debt ceiling suggest the disappearance of a source of uncertainty for the markets, but caution is called for given the divisions between the White House and the Republicans”, for César Perez Ruiz, Head of Investments and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, who argues: “This is an urgent matter: the US Treasury Department said on Friday it had just $88 billion to pay government bills as of May 10 – a figure to be compared with the 110 billion available a week earlier.”
In terms of statistics, the “Empire State” manufacturing index collapsed to -31.8, completely missing the expectations of the trading rooms. The index, which has been very volatile since the start of the year, is at its lowest since January. The dynamics of retail sales will be scrutinized tomorrow, especially since on Friday operators had to digest the very disappointing preliminary data from the consumer confidence index, as defined by the University of Michigan (U-Mich index ).
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Monday’s session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.14% to 33,348 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+0 .66% at 12,365 points). The S&P500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, eroded 0.30% to 4,136 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0870. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $71.20.
To be followed in priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, the confidence index in the German economy ZEW at 11:00 a.m. and retail sales in the United States at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Beware of the probable commitment of the three-color flagship index in a shoulder, head and shoulders pattern above a graphic base materialized by the bullish gap of March 30, below 7,235 points. We will watch like the milk on the fire, the continuation if necessary of this route to identify work scenarios. The breakout of 7,316 points would accelerate clearings towards the aforementioned level. In the immediate future, a continuation of a balancing of the buying and selling forces in a nervous atmosphere is expected, in particular with regard to the formation of the two large dojis drawn at the end of last week, and the red body of the candle of yesterday .
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7585.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7316.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 board
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}
window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];
window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);
Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});
});
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
