CAC 40: The KOHLs under surveillance

(News Bulletin 247) – The nervousness, translated graphically by the volatility, should remain significant for the last session of the week, which will be decisive for the whole look of the weekly candle. And all the more so as the Nasdaq Composite, on Thursday’s closing, posted a loss of 2.51% to 14,806 points, erasing the gains of the three previous sessions. In these conditions, we will monitor growth stocks in Paris in particular, mainly in tech and luxury. Confirmation of the Fed’s tighter-than-expected strategic shift is ultimately not as easy to digest.

In terms of statistics, operators took note this morning of a good surprise on Italian industrial production, up a surprise of 1.9% in November, on a monthly basis. Across the Atlantic, the producer price index increased by 0.2% in December (against 0.8% in November), and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits peaked at 230,000 new units.

On the stock side, LVMH fell 2.64% to 690.0 euros on Thursday, with no particular news except for a new rise in sovereign yields penalizing the most expensively valued stocks: Kering fell 3.61% to 685 9 euros for its part, Hermès by 3.17% to 1329 euros and L’Oréal by 2.81% to 188.80 euros. Technology also suffered (-2.7% for Teleperformance, -2% for Dassault Systèmes). On the rest of the rating, the specialist in digital consulting for companies Sopra Steria mentioned above therefore took off by 5.7% on the announcement of a clear overrun of its annual objectives. Finally, the day after a jump of 10.3%, Rexel still grabbed 2.45% and OVHcloud 3.6% after Wednesday’s +4.6%.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended in the red but in very different proportions, depending on their content of growth stocks. The Nasdaq Composite thus fell significantly, by 2.51% to 14,806 points, while the Dow Jones lost only 0.49% to 36,113 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 1.42% to 4,659 points.

A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,1460$. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around 82,60$.

To be continued on the agenda this Friday, to follow in priority consumer prices in France at 8:45 a.m., the trade balance in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m. and across the Atlantic, retail sales at 2:30 p.m. and the federal report on industry at 3:15 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The underlying trend is not threatened at this stage, but it is clear that the losses on Wall Street last week had repercussions in Paris, in the form of one-off and targeted profits in Paris, profit taking whose extent must be considered in the light of initial progress, dossier by dossier. All the same, we remain well above a bullish slant and the 100-day moving average (in orange), benchmarks which gradually tend to merge, and which will therefore gain in technical significance. We are leaning towards the scenario of a price approach to this support level.

PREVISION

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7390.00 points.

Hourly data chart

Chart in daily data

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