by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise on Wednesday in the wake of Wall Street with the hope of a recovery plan for the Chinese economy, but the trend should remain fragile amid questions about the strategy central banks.
Futures contracts on indices suggest an increase of 0.12% for the CAC 40 in Paris, 0.06% for the Dax in Frankfurt and 0.05% for the EuroStoxx 50. The FTSE 100 in London is expected steady.
According to Chinese customs data released on Wednesday, the country’s exports contracted sharply in May, by 7.5% year on year, and imports declined more slowly than expected, by 4.5% year on year.
“Domestic demand is subdued, but external demand is even weaker…which argues for more aggressive monetary policy stimulus from the PBOC (People’s Bank of China) to support demand. interior,” said Carlos Casanova, economist for Asia at UBP.
According to press reports, China on Tuesday also asked the country’s very large banks to reduce their deposit rates in order to stimulate the economy. Speculation about political support for the real estate sector further drove stocks in this sector higher last week.
Investors should, however, remain on their guard as monetary policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) approach next week as the RBA, Australia’s central bank, surprised on Tuesday. the markets by raising its key rate to 4.1%.
The OECD must for its part publish its new global outlook on Wednesday while the World Bank was more cautious on Tuesday for 2024 due in particular to high interest rates.
VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:
Inditex, the owner of Zara, reported a 54% rise in first-quarter profit on Wednesday as the group’s sales continued to build on the strong 2022 fiscal year.
AT WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange closed slightly higher on Tuesday in a cautious and wait-and-see context, ahead of inflation figures and the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision expected next week.
The Dow Jones index ended in extremis in the green with an increase of 10.42 points or 0.03% to 33,573.28 points, the S&P 500 rose 10.06 points, or 0.24%, to 4,283 .85 points and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.36% to 13,276.41.
The big three indices appeared to pause as the S&P 500 is up nearly 20% since a low in October 2022, thanks to gains in “mega-cap” stocks, a better-than-ever earnings season. expected and the hope that the US central bank will soon end the monetary tightening cycle.
In values, Coinbase, the largest American platform for the exchange of cryptoassets, plunged 12.09%, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the American stock market policeman, having launched legal proceedings against it.
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended down 1.69% at 31,957.15 points and the broader Topix fell 1.34% to 2,206.3 points, investors being cautious after the recent rally.
The MSCI index comprising stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) gained 0.6%.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite gained 0.17%, while the CSI 300 lost 0.32%.
The dollar is stable (+0.07%) against a basket of benchmark currencies as money markets are betting on a Fed rate break next week ahead of another hike in the cost of credit in July .
The yield on ten-year Treasuries fell by almost four basis points, to 3.664%.
The euro is displayed at 1.0681 dollar (-0.09%) while an ECB survey showed on Tuesday that consumers in the euro zone had revised downwards their expectations on the evolution of the inflation.
The yield of the ten-year German Bund, a reference for the whole of the euro zone, lost two basis points, to 2.349%.
Concerns about economic developments weigh on oil prices: Brent fell 0.66% to 75.79 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.7% to 71.24 dollars .
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Bertrand Boucey and Kate Entringer)
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