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Growth stocks, for which we are ready to pay more in the hope of a return, are by nature the first candidates for profit-taking during episodes of rising bond yields, quite simply because at these PER levels on the FANGAM, the yields of 10-year Treasuries, which yesterday reached high points since 2007, are in competition. A warming that can be explained by an anticipation that prices will remain at a high level for a long time to come in the United States, in particular because of the persistent tensions on the employment front.

The Nasdaq Composite, rich in growth stocks with high PER, lost 1.17% yesterday to 13,316 points, bringing its weekly decline to 2.40% before the last session of the week.

Christian Scherrmann, US DWS Economist, notes that going forward, “a slowdown in hiring is likely to be welcomed by central bankers, but for now, stubbornness in aggregate wage growth may be more important. .”

“While demand remains strong in sectors such as leisure, hospitality and healthcare, wages in these sectors have actually increased somewhat less than before. a heterogeneous set that supports both a soft landing scenario and a possible mild recession at some point.For the Fed, however, [le dernier rapport NFP] appears to support its hawkish stance, but does not necessarily imply further upside in September.

The tensions on the bond market are closely related to the publication at the heart of the week of the Minutes of the Fed, traditional report of the content of the debates during the last FOMC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the powerful Central Bank . The document shows, between the lines, that some Fed executives did not formally rule out an even bigger Fed Funds hike in July. For the month of September, a status quo on rates is the scenario that holds the rope, with a probability of 90.50% within the meaning of the CME’s FedWatch tool.

Yesterday in terms of statistics, new weekly jobless claims in the United States stood at 239,000, close to the expected figure (240,000) while the index of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region went back into the green in August, at 12 against -10 expected and -13.5 the previous month. No major US statistical benchmark is on the agenda this Friday.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The underlying trend, powerfully bullish, is naturally not called into question at this stage by the technical and graphic tools. However, the commitment to a broad consolidation phase, more engaging than a simple correction, is a scenario whose credibility rests on the formation of a characteristic double top in July, and by the messages sent by the candles in the very construction of this double summit: marubozusencompassing, dojis. We will monitor how close prices will close on their weekly lows on Friday. A close exactly on these low points, for the third week in a row, would reinforce the meaning of the negative message.

FORECAST

Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 14400.00 points.

The News Bulletin 247 board

Nasdaq Composite
Negative
Resistance(s):
–
Medium(s):
–

CHART IN DAILY DATA

Graphic made from the software Prorealtime

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