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The Parisian market is calmly consolidating its recent progress, as the publication of a series of major statistical figures approaches this week. In particular, we will follow with the greatest attention the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) in the United States this Tuesday, American GDP data tomorrow, preliminary consumer price data in November in the Euro Zone on Thursday, as well as PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred measure in its assessment of price dynamics. Enough to gauge even more precisely the credibility of a Goldilocks type scenario, an ideal scenario where measured and controlled inflation would coexist with weak but continuous growth.
“The market consensus is for a perfect scenario, in which the slowdown in inflation allows a reduction in key rates before mid-2024 without growth slowing down significantly. These expectations may last for a few more weeks given that the last macroeconomic data point in this direction. But the risk of a more marked slowdown (our scenario) or that of more persistent inflation could quickly weigh on risky assets”, warns Xavier Chapard (LBPAM).
On the values side, Elior gained 1.42%, far from its session highs. Deutsche Bank raised its recommendation to buy on the stock. The financial intermediary is convinced by the emphasis placed on debt reduction by the Derichebourg family as well as by the low valuation of the stock.
Sanofi limits its advance to 0.3% this Monday evening, after the announcement of encouraging results from clinical trials for its blockbuster Dupixent in the treatment of the disease known as “smoker’s lung”. The group has indicated that it wants to submit a marketing application in the United States for this indication by the end of the year. Bank of America welcomes “very robust” data.
While Valneva, up most of the session, turned downward (-0.4%) despite a new step for its vaccine candidate against chikungunya on European soil.
Atos fell 10.1% as BFM Business reported that the group could take various measures as part of its financial restructuring. The company could in particular ask Daniel Kretinsky to increase the cash disbursed by the Czech businessman to buy its outsourcing activities and, in return, Daniel Kretinsky would ultimately not enter into the capital of Eviden, the future “new Atos”, refocused on its growing businesses.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices symbolically closed in red territory on Monday, like the Dow Jones (-0.16% to 35,333 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (-0.07 % at 14,241 points). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell by 0.20% to 4,550 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0950. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $75.00.
On the agenda this Tuesday, to follow as a priority the American consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The 7,200 points, unambiguously exceeded on November 17 after pullback, are switched to intermediate support, above which the chart situation remains solid. At this stage of rally nevertheless, of no less than 500 points in a month, a phase of occasional profit-taking, on certain files, certain sectors, certain styles of values, and for a handful of sessions, is the preferred option.
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is below resistance at 7406.00 points.
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