EUR/USD: The magnifying glass is focused on American employment

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The EURUSD spot continued its consolidation movement sheltered under its 20-day moving average (in dark blue), in a foreign exchange market which wonders to what extent J Powell will “strengthen” his speech on December 13 at the from the next FOMC (meeting of the Fed Monetary Policy Committee.

To provide food for thought, the Fed will have available numerous benchmarks on employment, to be published this week. Because all the tensions on this front have not dissipated. Employment will be discussed throughout the week, with new job offers (JOLTs), weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, the survey by the private human resources firm ADP and, as a highlight, this Friday, the monthly federal report on private employment in November. The consensus expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 3.9% of the active population, job creation to increase by around 185,000, and average hourly wages to increase by 0.3%. A solid report, therefore, if the targets were to be reached.

If the specter of a price/wage spiral, once mentioned, is behind us, tensions on employment will still be measured very carefully. The reaction of 10-year Treasuries on Friday, to the publication of the monthly federal report, will be instructive in this regard.

The head of the Fed spoke on Friday and his “response was clear, it was a “semi-hawk” Fed president who spoke, leaving no room for complacency”, for Alexandre Baradez ( IG France). “He recalled that inflation was moving in the right direction but that it was still well above the target and that “core” inflation (excluding food and energy) was still too high.”

Yesterday, currency investors took note of the Sentix investor confidence index in the Euro Zone, up less sharply than expected, at -16.8. To follow at 2:30 p.m. an important activity indicator (American ISM services), as well as new job offers (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), published by the Federal Department of Labor.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0820 approximately.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

After a bullish runaway characterized by the candle in marubozu school on November 14, followed by a very short consolidation and an early bullish extension, a technical adjustment is underway, an adjustment catalyzed by the statistical publications of Thursday, November 30. The view is neutral in close proximity to the 20-day moving average (dark blue).

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as Euro Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between support at 1.0822 USD and resistance at 1.1012 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART