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Penalized by Airbus (-9.41%), the CAC 40 contracted by 0.58% to 7,662 points on Tuesday, in a market which is asking questions in all directions, a few days before the first round of the legislative elections. The aircraft manufacturer announced a “warning” caused by its difficulties in the space sector as well as renewed tensions on its logistics chain, particularly with regard to engines. In this bad wake, the engine manufacturer Safran lost 3.28% and Thalès 1.97%. Conversely, Eurofins Sc, which ardently refuted the accusations of short seller Muddy Waters, recovered 4% after having plunged 16% the day before.
In terms of statistics, operators took note of the American consumer confidence index (Conference Board), almost in line with expectations, at 100.4. Next major meetings Thursday with the quarterly PIN and registrations for unemployment benefits, and especially Friday with PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred gauge in its assessment of inflation.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, a scenario of federal rate cuts in September has almost a 68% chance of happening. The tool, as a reminder, makes it possible to quantify and analyze the probabilities of changes in federal rates and American monetary policy based on the price of 30-day federal funds futures contracts. This is a valuable and complementary tool to the dot plot diagram.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main stock indices again ended the session in a mixed order, with the Dow Jones losing 0.76% and the Nasdaq Composite, with a strong technology bias, gaining 1.26% to 17,717 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0730. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $81.50.
On the agenda this Wednesday, priority will be given to new home sales in the United States at 4:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The shoulder, head and shoulder graphic figure traced since April 16 is in the process of breaking its neckline, which corresponds more or less to the gap of February 22, fully filled on 06/11 during the session. The short-term graphic configuration is significantly degraded.
One after the other, the French flagship index failed two major technical tests: it exited the bottom of a channel on May 29, and as seen previously, it exited the bottom of a chart pattern on June 10. Below 7,900 points, the situation remains worrying.
The “LVMH” gap has been filled. Ample, it was formed on January 26 following the publication of an excellent quarterly report from the luxury giant.
The weekly candle of week 24 testifies to a strong and continuous mobilization of the selling camp throughout the unit of time.
Week 25 was the scene of a timid, sideways reaction, without consistency or conviction, either in terms of participation (volumes) or that of the sectors (no federation).
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 7690.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7415.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
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