(News Bulletin 247) – The intensification of the Russian bombardments in Ukraine naturally penalizes the appetite for risky assets, families of which the shares of technological files are part. As the Ukrainian army faces a new offensive by Russian forces on Kyiv, Kharkiv and several other cities in the country on Tuesday, the day after initial unsuccessful talks, Russia announced, through its Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu , that it “will continue its offensive until all objectives are achieved”, namely the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine. The Nasdaq Composite index, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side, managed to grab 0.41% to 13,751 points on Monday. It is expected in the red at the opening on Tuesday.
The central topic in the trading rooms is, in addition to the direct impact of the war on global growth, is the impact on the timing of rate hikes by major Western global banks. “What about the monetary policies of central banks? asks Thomas Giudici, co-head of bond management at AURIS Gestion If, on the side of the ECB, monetary tightening seems already dead in the bud, the question is more delicate for the Fed. Because if it is always difficult to imagine rate hikes in the current context, the fight against Putin will be inflationary…”
Once again, macroeconomic statistical figures have been relegated to the background. It should be noted all the same, a missed target for the American trade balance in goods in January, the deficit passing the symbolic bar of 100 billion dollars. Also missed target was the Chicago PMI Industrial Activity Barometer, at 56.3 this month. To follow the US manufacturing PMI (ISM) and construction spending at 4:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
As a reminder, here are a number of key elements presented on Wednesday: “Congestion is expected between 13,330 points and 14,445 points, i.e. a wide band where operators’ nervousness can be expressed. In the event of an exit by the low, especially in thick volumes, the technical situation becomes problematic. As such, week 07 was a very high technical stake. The weekly closing level, of importance, is practically on the lows of the week.” In the light of the strength of the breach of this threshold, the 13,330 points are swung into major resistance, even if the index came to end Thursday’s session above it. The technical conditions of the breakout are indeed eloquent: bearish engulfing coupled with a marubozu school black. The sales mobilization will have lasted the entire session.
The buying mobilization throughout Thursday’s session is impressive and further validates the entry into a phase of high volatility. We remain negative below 13,330 points for the time being.
FORECAST
Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 14150.00 points.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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