CAC 40: in the very short -term overhang zone

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The rally this month of January continues, on a very accentuated slope, while the market is gradually taking note of the shock announcements of Donald Trump, invested 47th President of the United States on January 20.

In a visio-conference intervention, Donald Trump spoke before an audience of managing business leaders on the occasion of the Davos World Economic Forum. The American president demanded that the “interest rates drop immediately”, while the American federal reserve plans to meet next Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors anticipate a status quo to its key rates at 99.5%, according to the Fedwatch tool of CME Group.

“With the prices of oil that will drop, I demand that interest rates drop immediately and, in the same way, they should drop all over the world. Interest rates should follow us everywhere,” -He advanced. The American president also invited the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) to reduce the prices of black gold. “I will ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower the cost of oil,” he also said.

In the statistical chapter, investors have taken note of weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, released at 223,000 new units, very close to the target and the 200,000 floor, proof if it took another, tensions on the market Employment, tensions that force Fed to activate handbrakes in its monetary easing process.

On the values ​​side, the bank was well oriented, with Crédit Agricole (+1.28%), BNP-Paris (+1.72%) and Société Générale (+2.27%). Safran shone (+2.06%), taking advantage of the good publication of his American partner Ge Aerospace who revealed results in the expectations of his fourth quarter. Excluding CAC 40, Vicat wins 3.5% supported by Barclays who noted his council to “overlap” against “online weighting”.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares have once again finished in green, like the Dow Jones (+0.92%), which takes the advantage once is not custom on the composite Nasdaq (+0.22%). The S & P500, at the Zenith, gained 0.53% at 6,118 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0,450. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 74.50.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow the preliminary data of PMI (services and industry) in the euro zone for the current month at 10:00 am as a priority. Equivalent figures are expected for the United States at 3:45 p.m. To be continued also at 4:00 p.m. the Consumer Configuration Index (U-Mich) in revised data.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index above the support at 7810.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics