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The euro plunges to the dollar, at $ 1,0240 each, sounded by customs statements to the martial tone of Donald Trump.
After having confirmed first measures against its immediate neighbors (Canada and Mexico up to 25%), as well as China (10% additional), the American president takes out the claws by being increasingly threatening against the European Union.
With an always rich vocabulary, the tenant of the White House declared in front of an audience of journalists, based on the deficit of the trade balance with the European Union: “They do not take our cars or our agricultural products, almost nothing And we all take millions of cars, a lot of agricultural products.
“I don’t have a calendar but it is very soon!”, He said.
“Canada has already announced retaliatory measures, 25% customs taxes with $ 107 billion in imports from American products. For its part, the Mexican president said that it would give details of the countermersions today. China has also announced that it would adopt retaliation measures without however giving more detail at this stage, “figure Alexandre Baradez (IG France), opening, filigree, the question of whether in the trade war that opens , there will be winners and losers, or only losers …
“It is starting to do a lot, even for the American indices because these commercial advertisements intervene when the Fed decided to take a break on its rate drops,” continued the analyst.
In the statistical chapter on Friday, note the publication of the PCE index (Personal consumption Expenditures), FED’s favorite thermometer to measure inflation. The index increased by 2.6% over an year in December, compared to 2.4% in November still at an annual rate. Its underlying component, the “Core PCE” which excludes volatile elements such as energy and food remained stable at 2.8% over a year, in accordance with the expectations of economists interviewed by the Wall Street Journal (2 , 8% over a year).
“The report on PCE inflation comes out overall online with expectations, whether it is total inflation or underlying inflation, and monthly variations or annual variations”, advance Bastien Drut, responsible of strategy and economic studies at CPRAM.
This Monday, the trades learned of the final data of the PMI manufacturing barometers in the euro zone. “Relative” good surprise with the only German component, very supervised, which appears at 45.0 against 44.1 in the first estimate. The score remains at 5 points below the threshold of 50 points, which separates by building a contraction of an expansion of the sector considered. Inflation for the month of January, in the euro zone, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, comes out at +2.7% in annualized pace, slightly above consensus.
To follow the American manufacturing ISM at 4:00 p.m.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0240 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0243 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the capital committed, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0311 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 242 pips and the risk of loss is 67.999999999999 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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