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Barely digesting the still hypothetical impacts of the emergence of Deepseek, the Nasdaq Composite contracted 0.28% on Friday after having tu in session the 20,000 symbolic points. The opening is expected to decrease sharply on Monday, investors fearing that the increasingly martial tone of D. Trump on customs duties will not heat up more bond yields.
After having confirmed first measures against its immediate neighbors (Canada and Mexico up to 25%), as well as China (10% additional), the American president takes out the claws by being increasingly threatening against the European Union.
With an always “rich” vocabulary, the tenant of the White House declared in front of an audience of journalists, based on the deficit of the trade balance with the European Union: “They do not take our cars or our agricultural products, Almost nothing and we all take millions of cars, a lot of agricultural products “.
“I don’t have a calendar but it is very soon!”, He said.
“Canada has already announced retaliatory measures, 25% customs taxes with $ 107 billion in imports from American products. For its part, the Mexican president said that it would give details of the countermersions today. China has also announced that it would adopt retaliation measures without however giving more detail at this stage, “figure Alexandre Baradez (IG France), opening, filigree, the question of whether in the trade war that opens , there will be winners and losers, or only losers …
“It is starting to do a lot, even for the American indices because these commercial advertisements intervene when the Fed decided to take a break on its rate drops,” continued the analyst.
The question of the inflationary impact of an intensification of the trade war is at the heart of the reflection of the managers, who are beginning to want to secure their gains on the files to very strong, whose index which interests us here is full.
“It is difficult to understand at this stage what is the economic objective sought. The United States would be losing in the current situation, especially since Mexico and Canada intend to take reprisal measures. Canada has it Already done and Mexico should announce measures today, “said Sebastien Paris Horvitz de LBPAM.
“What is already certain is that one of the major objectives of Donald Trump which is to lower inflation, will not be achieved but will get worse in the short term. By following the estimates of the Fed made in the past (in 2018), Bloomberg estimates that the impact on American GDP of the announced measures could cost 1.2 percentage points on American growth and 0.7 inflation points in full year, “he adds.
And while the questions on the Deepseek file are not dried up …
As a reminder, this startup, owned by a wealth management company, has managed to “train” its IA model for $ 6 million, a derisory sum from that committed by the American Openai, of the order of $ 3 billion. And this for stunning results in terms of the efficiency of the tool.
“What Deepseek was able to achieve with open source AI and some improved learning strategies, forming a reasonably strong AI model for only a tenth of the cost, has created a shock wave for many IA companies American “, synthesizes Yan Taw (YT) Boon, manager at Neuberger Berman, who wants to be reassuring and potentially sees an opportunity.
“It is likely that the United States will continue to restrict China access to advanced IA fleas and advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In parallel, the United States will accelerate the deployment of IA infrastructure In order to maintain their advance in this technological race. It is in this context that we observe the return of Trump’s slogan: “Drill Baby Drill” (for a cheaper energy) and “Build Baby Build” (in reference to Stargate project estimated at $ 500 billion) “.
Enough to ask three essential questions, which market rooms cannot ignore:
1) Is it a real return of China in the AI ​​race? In any case, commercially, China will legitimately be able to sell its services to a clientele from developing countries, initially turned to American references in the matter.
2) The second question is that of the limit of American sanctions for exports of fleas at very high computing power. Recall that for three years, the United States has not exported the most efficient semiconductors to China, the “Nvidia A100”. Deepseek claims to have trained his AI model on much less efficient fleas in terms of computing power.
3) This allows you to engage on the third question: the computing power, as essential as it is, does not do everything! Chinese companies, deprived of the best chips, have been forced to innovate in software, visibly successfully.
“”This innovation shows that, faced with adversity, human ingenuity can overcome hardware constraints by software advances. The software, as an intangible entity, escapes regulations and commercial barriers, especially when it is freely shared. This approach reduces the latest generation graphics cards to cause high -performance models, which could question the investment plans of American giants and affect companies’ turnover like Nvidia and Broadcom “, analysis Abdoullah Sardi, Manager of amplegest digital leaders.
Because behind AI, there is above all ingenuity, and therefore a form of human intelligence!
In the statistical chapter on Friday, the PCE index, the Fed favorite barometer in its assessment of inflation, increased by 2.6% over an year in December, against 2.4% in November still at annual rate. Its underlying component, the “Core PCE” which excludes volatile elements such as energy and food remained stable at 2.8% over a year, in accordance with the expectations of economists interviewed by the Wall Street Journal (2 , 8% over a year).
“The report on PCE inflation comes out overall online with expectations, whether it is total inflation or underlying inflation, and monthly variations or annual variations”, advance Bastien Drut, responsible of strategy and economic studies at CPRAM.
Recall that the Fed maintained its unchanged guiding rates last week, by highlighting the strength of the job market. Note that in a post-FOMC press conference, J. Powell said he did not count “answer or comment on any way what the president [Trump] said “.” It would be inappropriate, “he added in a very phlegmatic way, adding that he had” had no contact “with the tenant of the White House since his inauguration, about ten days ago .
On the values ​​side, Apple (-0.67%) published Thursday evening. If the decline is minimal, the plug traced, in an encompassing school lowering, deteriorates on the other hand the very short -term graphic profile. The consumer technology group announced declining revenues for the iPhone in the first quarter of its fiscal year 2024-2025. But the financial director, Kevan Parekh, said that the company anticipated a slight growth for the current quarter.
To be continued at 4:00 p.m. the manufacturer’s ISM.
Key graphics elements
The 20,000 symbolic points will gradually constitute a level of resistance, if they are not quickly reconquered. In the immediate future, a little more cautious navigation is required, especially since the GAP of November 06 can gradually have an attraction effect. Its low terminal is worth 18,449 points. It will then be time to anticipate the formation, and to identify the appearance, of the consolidation figure (rectangle, diamond, bevel, correction leg) …
For the moment a widen -type consolidation holds the rope. Very negative opinion on the scale of the coming session, within this figure, which is increasingly taking the appearance of a diamond (diamond). It is an accumulation figure. The question of the release of this figure will soon arise.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This lower scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq composite index Cost below the resistance at 20180.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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