CAC 40: The 8,000 -point challenge in a rain of results

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Tracted by ArcelorMittal (+13.3%) and Société Générale (+13.1%), the CAC reached symbolically to close above the 8,000 points, at 8,007 points, without however acting a sustainable crossing, this level psychological still constituting intermediate resistance.

Star of the day, the Defense Bank exceeded expectations almost everywhere in the fourth quarter, with in particular a significant recovery in net income in the retail bank in France. Pernod Ricard increased by 3.1% despite the downward revision of its annual objectives and in the medium term, on the sidelines of the publication of its half -yearly results. But the market does not hold it against it, appreciating the maintenance of medium -term objectives unlike its Rival Diageo on Tuesday.

Excluding the flagship index, Soitec plunged almost 30%, after lowering its annual prospects, with sales expected to decline for the year 2024-2025. Soitec also anticipates relatively limited growth in the following exercise.

The market continues to assess the consequences of exchanges to say the least, between China and the United States on customs surcharge. President Donald Trump signed a decree establishing customs from 10% on Chinese imports on Saturday. This without too much surprise provoked the ire of Beijing which replied by establishing customs surcharges on imports of liquefied natural gas and American coal. New twist Wednesday: US postal services announced on Tuesday that they would no longer accept “until further notice” packages from China and Hong Kong. The American post then returned to its decision, in the early afternoon.

In the statistical chapter, the new weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic emerged at 219,000, very close to the consensus. And this on the eve of the highly anticipated publication of the Federal Report on Private Employment (NFP). Here are the main elements of consensus of the report of tomorrow: unemployment is expected stable at 4.1% of the active population, the number of positions of posts in the private sector outside agriculture at 169,000, and the monthly increase in wages contained in +0.3%.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session in dispersed order, like the Dow Jones (-0.28%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.51%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.36% to 6,083 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0380. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 70.90.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow the federal report on employment at 2:30 p.m. on Friday, as well as the American consumer confidence index (U-Mich), in preliminary data at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday, January 16 with the crossing on GAP then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday and reflected on Monday. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap. The real test in progress is that of the 8,000 points.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8315.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7810.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics