(Reuters) – Edenred falls on the stock market on Tuesday after reporting less strong than expected of its operational turnover in the fourth quarter, the group also citing “an uncertain economic environment, especially in Europe”.

The specialist in restaurant titles reported an increase of 4.6% in organic variation in its operational turnover in the fourth quarter, while analysts were tabling on +6.7% in a consensus provided by the group .

On the Paris Stock Exchange, around 10:35 a.m. GMT, the title fell 6.12% to 31.7 euros, against quasi-stability (-0.02%) for the CAC 40 at the same time.

According to JP Morgan analysts, operational turnover was affected by hyperinflation in Argentina and a lower market in Europe.

The group also reported a drop of 9.2% comparable to the operational turnover of its “mobility” activity in the fourth quarter, while analysts were tabling on +0.9%, according to consensus.

“A mediocre performance due in large part to hyperinflation in Argentina,” write in particular about this drop, Stifel analysts, who point to mixed results and a slowdown in income growth.

Impact expected in Italy

Edenred has also confirmed its prospects for 2025 after achieving its financial targets for 2024, providing, among other things, growth in the EBITDA of at least 10% in comparable data.

This objective, announced in October during the publication of the third quarter results, notably takes into account the potential impact relating to the implementation of a ceiling on merchant commissions in Italy during the year.

A measure studied by the Italian Parliament, which aims to introduce a 5% ceiling on the commissions of restaurant titles paid by merchants in the private sector, could have an impact of 60 million euros in 2025 and 120 million ‘euros in full year, warned Edenred in October.

Anticipating these risks, Edenred had announced a possible revision of his plan ‘Beyond22-25’, including a lowering to 10% of the objective of organic growth initially set at 12%.

This downward revision was confirmed in December during an investor day.

The objective of a conversion ratio of his Ebitda into free cash flow greater than 70%, provided for in the initial ‘Beyond22-25’ strategy has not been revised.

In a globally positive note, Jefferies analysts emphasize that they remain cautious with regard to Edenred’s ambitions for 2025, due to the “difficult” comparison bases in the first semester and winds -contrary winds related to regulations in the second .

Expectations exceeded over the year

On the whole of its 2024 exercise, Edenred nevertheless exceeded expectations, recording in particular an EBITDA (profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) Record Record up 15.7% in published data, at 1.26 billion ‘Euros, above the expectations of analysts who tamed an average of 1.25 billion euros depending on the consensus.

In 2024, Edenred also recorded an operational turnover greater than expectations at 2.6 billion euros and a record profit of 2.07 euros per share.

(Written by Etienne Breban, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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