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The CAC 40 (+1.13% Friday), at 8,028 points, will have finished on a good note a complicated week.
The Paris market was carried by positive signals. In Germany, the future chancellor Friedrich Merz has reached an agreement with the Greens which should allow the mega investment plan (around 900 billion euros) in defense and infrastructure to be adopted.
With the support of environmental deputies, the leader of the Conservative Party is strong by a majority of two thirds necessary for constitutional changes and soften the rules of indebtedness across the Rhine. Which is a prerequisite for this plan to be implemented.
The text will be submitted to a vote next Tuesday at the Bundestag, before passing through the hands of the Bundesrat.
The prospect of avoiding a “Shutdown” in the United States will also have catalyzed this contestation reaction on a market upset for several weeks by the trade war launched by Trump.
Latest development in what should be called a trade war, Donald Trump, threatened to tax, imports of spirits 200%. On its social network Truth Social, the tenant of the White House referred to “villains of customs rights of 50% on whiskeys” set up by the European Union.
Recall that in reaction to customs duties of 25% set up by the United States on imports of steel and aluminum from all over the world, both the European Union and China and Canada have announced retaliatory measures. Donald Trump himself indicated that he would in turn retaliate, by putting customs duties that could “be a little more than reciprocal” on April 4.
In the statistical chapter on Friday, operators were once again disappointed by the U-American household confidence U-Mich index, brought out in expectations at 57.9, in the first estimate for the current month.
This week will be marked once again by geopolitics, President Trump having announced to speak tomorrow with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
US President Donald Trump explained to journalists present in Air Force One that “a lot of work was done over the weekend”, while a 30-day truce plan was proposed and validated by the Americans and the Ukrainians. He also spoke of “sharing of certain assets”, evoking “lands” and “electric factories”. The Russians are demanding “concrete security guarantees” to carry out this truce.
On the values ​​side, Kering dropped 10.71%, the scholarship sanctioning the appointment of the new artistic director of Gucci, Demna. Vivendi rendered 3%, penalized by UMG’s withdrawal (-8.75%) – of which it holds almost 10% – on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange due to the transfer of action by Pershing Square, funds of the famous investor Bill Ackman. Excluding CAC 40, Rubis rebounded 5.35% after announcing satisfactory results as well as changes within its governance. Stef dropped 8% sanctioned for its annual results, marked by a retreat of profitability greater than feared.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares resumed Friday, like the Dow Jones (+1.65%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+2.61%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 2.13% at 5,638 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0880. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 67.40. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.30%. As for the VIX, it was worth 21.70 at the last fence of the S & P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow retail sales and the Empire State across the Atlantic at 1:30 p.m.
It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.
Key graphics elements
The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.
Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8260.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7810.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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