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It is today; April 02 at 10:00 p.m. (Paris time) that Donald Trump will hold a press conference at the White House, which will be able to date in the history of the globalization of trade. The American president, who has continued to alternate brutal verbal protrusions, threats and steps on customs duties, should accurately reveal the surcharges applied to such a country, such a product, and under what conditions.
The American president, who evokes on April 2 as the “Liberation Day” (“Liberation Day”), must mark the start of a commercial policy in favor, according to him, of American employees and products. Peter Navarro, Donald Trump’s commerce and industry advisor, said these surcharges could bring 660 billion dollars per year.
“Today, many customs duties should be announced, but everything remains uncertain: magnitude, calendar, disparities according to the country. Estimates of the average tariff rate range from a few percentage points at two-digit levels in more pessimistic scenarios”, advance Oliver Blackbourn, portfolio manager, and Adam Hetts, Multi-active investment manager Henderson.
“It is not clear either if customs duties are used to leverage in a broader negotiation strategy. What seems less uncertain is their overall negative impact on economic growth, consumers and markets,” they add.
And it is precisely this fear of “all losers” which whatever the brutality of the measures announced, will weigh both on the dollar, a historic currency of world trade, and the euro, the end of the appetite for the risk in the financial markets. Even if Donald Trump promised to be “very nice” … (very kind).
In the statistical chapter, the operators learned yesterday of the final data of the PMI manufacturer in the euro zone in final data, at 48.6 points, very close to the first estimates.
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at the commercial Hamburg Bank, brought the following lighting: “If the PMI index has straightened up in Germany and France, the two main economies in the euro zone, it has however folded in Italy, while it established itself below 50.0 of without change for a second consecutive month in Spain after having a relatively high level at a relatively high level. Hopefully budgetary spending will increase significantly in Germany, and that this increase will also benefit other countries in the region, thus stimulating growth throughout the euro zone.
In addition, the very first estimates of inflation within the meaning of retail prices in the euro zone, excluding volatile elements, came out for March at +2.4% at an annual rate, compared to 2.3% anticipated.
“With a stable development of consumer goods, this has brought a certain relief for the basic rate, which has only increased by 2.4 % in March. The European Central Bank will be delighted with this development, because a new softening of services prices is a key hypothesis to achieve its 2 % inflation objective,” said Ulrike Kastens, senior Europe DWS economist.
To be continued at 2:15 pm this Wednesday, the conclusions of the investigation of the private firm in HR ADP will be revealed. A precious taste upstream of the publication on Friday of the federal relationship on private employment health in March, the famous NFP, for non-Farm Payrolls.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against
Key graphics elements
The crossing in significant volatility of $ 1,0608 changes the situation on the configuration of the currency pair, which has just validated a resumption of support on a long mobile average, at 50 days (in orange), which begins a resource figure. The scenario of a fast melting towards the perfect parity (€ 1 = $ 1) is invalidated. This consolidation comes in terminal phase in contact with the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), on the tightening background of Bollinger strips.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,0758 USD and the resistance to USD 1,1012.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
