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The CAC 40 index finished slightly down Friday (-0.30% to 7,104 points) a session again volatile, investors hardly taste the uncertainty generated by Donald Trump, which alternates, in its own style, between brutal and radical decisions, and spectacular voltte-faces.
As a reminder, Wednesday evening, the unpredictable tenant of the White House announced a 90 -day break on the customs surcharges they had revealed on April 2. More precisely, customs duties for all countries will be reduced to 10% during this period. A notable exception: China. This weekend, the White House, however, lowered to 20% (a “floor”) customs duties on computers and smartphones, thus yielding to Apple pressure, of which many components of its products come from China.
“It is obvious that US companies will have more difficulty diversifying their supply chains given the scale of customs duties. Political considerations could also lead to a relaxation of the position of the Trump administration with the approach of mid-Mandat elections,” comments Claudia Panseri, Chief Investment Officer at UBS WM France.
We would almost forget that we enter the ball of quarterly publications of large listed groups. Our luxury sector champion, LVMH, in trouble on the stock market, will open this ball for the values ​​of the CAC 40.
In the statistical chapter on Friday, across the Atlantic, producer prices, excluding food and energy, started with a withdrawal, lowering 0.1% monthly, against expectations at +0.3%. By elsewhere, the barometer of the feeling of confidence of the American consumer continued its decline, from 57 to 50.8 in preliminary data for the current month (data U-Mich).
On the values ​​side, red lantern of the CAC 40, Stellantis fence in withdrawal of 3.9%. The automaker is very exposed to uncertainty about customs duties. The group has also published volumes in very sharp and disappointing over the first three months of the year. On the side of the increases, Rubis increased by 7% after the Molis family declared having strengthened in the capital of Rubis.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the Friday session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+1.56%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+2.06%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, won +1.81% at 5,363 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1380. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 60.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.47%. As for the Vix, it was worth 37.56 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority a speech by C Waller (member of the Fed) at 7:00 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The technical framework is upset, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. Rupture which was followed by intense clearances, in powerful volumes. The GAP of January 16 is now fully filled, without any reaction from the courses. Worse, a crossing part (7,552 – 7,585 points). In two sessions, Thursday 03 and Friday 04 April, the flagship index lost nearly 520 points, and switched to the red for its assessment since 01/01. Monday April 07, once again showed the extreme psychological tension of a market at the heart of a wave of intense clearances. Abdication is close.
In the immediate future an attempt to rebalance, not without nervousness, constitutes the privileged scenario. We will carefully monitor a possible formation of combination of candles in “black crows”, which would then send an additional alert.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7465.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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