CAC 40: already strong volatility could still progress

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our wallets by accessing our privilege space.

The CAC 40 index continues, in significant volatility, its consolidation bevel which followed the dropout suffered between March 26 and April 07. Volatility, already important within the bevel could be led to explode again in the event of exit from below. The operators remain particularly anxious in the face of arbitrary decisions, then to Trump’s faces, in the trade war he led against the rest of the world, and even more aggressively against China.

This weekend, the White House, however, lowered to 20% (a “floor”) customs duties on computers and smartphones, thus yielding to Apple pressure, of which many components of its products come from China. “It is obvious that US companies will have more difficulty diversifying their supply chains given the scale of customs duties. Political considerations could also lead to a relaxation of the position of the Trump administration with the approach of mid-Mandat elections,” comments Claudia Panseri, Chief Investment Officer at UBS WM France.

Donald Trump, however, warned that this stay was “temporary” and that he would announce “in the week” new customs measures on these technological products. This softening of customs rules as temporary as it is, is welcome for the markets. And for the technological sector logically sought after after the American announcements. In this case the titles linked to semiconductors like Soitec which took over 5.55% or Stmicroelectronics which earned 2.2%.

“This is excellent news for manufacturers of consumer public electronics, such as Apple,” notes Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM. “China also applies smaller customs duties than expected with exclusions to semiconductors that make TSMC will not be concerned and therefore Intel orders will not be.”

The values ​​to be monitored this morning is our luxury star, LVMH, who published last night. And the copy is clearly disappointing. “In a disturbed geopolitical and economic context, LVMH remains both vigilant and confident at the start of the year,” said the number one of luxury. However, the risks linked to customs duties announced by the American administration and then suspended for some by Donald Trump will fear a contraction of the luxury market this year.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in the green, but at the right distance, however, high session points, like the Dow Jones (+0.78% to 40,524 points) or the NASDAQ Composite (+0.64% to 16,831 points). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.79% to 5,405 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1340. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.30. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.36%. As for the Vix, it was worth 30.89 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the ZEW index of trust in the German economy at 10:00 am and the “Empire State” index at 2:30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The technical framework is upset, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. Rupture which was followed by intense clearances, in powerful volumes. The GAP of January 16 is now fully filled, without any reaction from the courses. Worse, a crossing part (7,552 – 7,585 points). In two sessions, Thursday 03 and Friday 04 April, the flagship index lost nearly 520 points, and switched to the red for its assessment since 01/01. Monday April 07, once again showed the extreme psychological tension of a market at the heart of a wave of intense clearances. Abdication is close.

In the immediate future an attempt to rebalance, not without nervousness, constitutes the privileged scenario. An outing for the bottom of a bevel figure would cause an increase in volatility, in terms of the nervousness known at the inlet of the graphic figure.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7465.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics