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Not helped by LVMH (-7.82%), CAC 40 (+0.86%) managed to grab some points at the top of the bevel, investors remaining awaiting visibility on customs rates that Trump will last permanently to his “business partners”. As a reminder, in his characteristic style, after typing very hard, the impetuous tenant of the White House has somewhat softened his position.
“The surprise announcement by Donald Trump of a temporary 90-day suspension of so-called” reciprocal “customs duties, accompanied by a 10 % lowering for countries that do not respond by countermeasures[…] has strengthened hopes for gradual appeasement and relaunched discussions on future sectoral negotiations, especially in semiconductors and the pharmaceutical sector. “Comments Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management.
“However, the uncertainties remain numerous. If the American gesture has been welcomed, it does not sign the end of trade tensions, in particular vis-Ã -vis China, still targeted by customs duties of 145 % [hors smartphones et ordinateurs personnels]. The US budgetary file, with a provisional increase in sharp rise and a worrying debt trajectory, also continues to worry investors. Household inflation anticipations start upwards, while the Fed remains cautious in the face of the risk of an imported inflationary shock. ”
The American president also said he wanted to loosen the customs rules in terms of vehicle and spare parts in the United States, which pushed Valeo (+9.06%), Frovia (+7.37%) or Stellantis (+8.62%). While on the other side of the charts, LVMH (-7.82%) suffered from the publication of a disappointing quarter.
“The US administration imposes customs duties on all foreign countries. These protectionist measures are trying to charge the world for security and the facility of business in the world, made possible by the US dollar and the military power of the United States. Customs rights have shaken the financial markets, including the supposed market of the bonds of the Treasury, which has not succeeded in protecting investors from the market. And a self-inflicted crisis could prepare the ground for a moment similar to that of Liz Truss for the bonds of the Treasury “, analysis Axel Botte, Director Strategy Markets of Ostrum AM.
As a reminder, Liz Truss, ephemeral 1st Minister of the United Kingdom, had caused a negative reaction to the bond markets after her budget proposal.
In the statistical chapter, the markets have taken note of the collapse, even more violent than expected, of the ZEW index of confidence in the German economy, the first in the euro zone, going from 39.8 to -14.
The president of the ZEW Institute, Achim Wambach, has brought the following insights: “The erratic changes in American trade policy weigh heavily on expectations in Germany, which have decreased sharply. It is not only the consequences that the reciprocal customs duties announced could have on world trade, but also the dynamics of their evolution, which have considerably increased the world’s uncertainty. Germany and the euro zone reflect this development. “
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.38%) or the Nasdaq Composite (-0.05%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for risk in the eyes of fund managers, symbolically contracted from 0.17% to 5,396 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1370. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 60.00. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.31%. As for the Vix, it was worth 30.12 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow in priority retail sales in the United States at 2:30 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The technical framework is upset, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. Rupture which was followed by intense clearances, in powerful volumes. The GAP of January 16 is now fully filled, without any reaction from the courses. Worse, a crossing part (7,552 – 7,585 points). In two sessions, Thursday 03 and Friday 04 April, the flagship index lost nearly 520 points, and switched to the red for its assessment since 01/01. Monday April 07, once again showed the extreme psychological tension of a market at the heart of a wave of intense clearances. Abdication is close.
In the immediate future an attempt to rebalance, not without nervousness, constitutes the privileged scenario. An outing for the bottom of a bevel figure would cause an increase in volatility, in terms of the nervousness known at the inlet of the graphic figure.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7465.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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