(Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast on Tuesday for 2025 to 2.8%, against an estimate of 3.3% in January, referring to the impact of American customs duties.

This update of the prospects comes as US President Donald Trump turned world trade by imposing a wave of new surcharge on his main business partners.

The IMF has revised down its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most other countries, including France, and has warned that new trade tensions would still slow the economy.

Inflation should also slow down slower than scheduled in January, given the impact of surcharge, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with “notable” revisions for the United States and other advanced economies.

The IMF describes the report as a “basic forecast” based on the evolution of the situation until April 4, highlighting the extreme complexity and the fluidity of the current situation.

Donald Trump announced on April 2 a wave of so -called “reciprocal” customs duties on many countries, before deciding on a 90 -day break – with the exception of China.

“We are entering a new era, because the global economic system that has worked for the past 80 years is being reset,” journalists Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF, told journalists.

The rapid climbing of trade tensions and the “extremely high levels” of uncertainty about future policies will have a significant impact on global economic activity, said the IMF.

“This is a fairly important phenomenon that affects all regions of the world. We note a slowdown in growth in the United States, in the euro area, in China and other regions of the world,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas during an interview with Reuters.

“If we are witnessing an escalation of trade tensions between the United States and other countries, this will feed an additional uncertainty, will create increased volatility on the financial markets and will result in a tightening of financial conditions,” he said, adding that the group effect would further reduce the prospects for global growth.

The IMF revised its growth forecasts for the United States in 2025 from 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% and 0.4 percentage points to 1.7% for 2026, citing political uncertainty and trade tensions.

In China, the IMF now expects growth of 4% for 2025 and 2026, reflecting respective revisions of 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points compared to the January forecasts.

For France, the IMF now forecasts growth of 0.6% in 2025, compared to 0.8% in January. The French government recently lowered its growth forecast to 0.7% for 2025.

In the euro zone, GDP growth is now expected at 0.8% this year and 1.2% in 2026.

In Germany, where the government is due to update its economic forecasts on Thursday, GDP should stagnate this year against growth of 0.3% expected before, according to the IMF.

The Institute noted its growth forecast for Spain, 2.5% against 2.3% before.

(Written by Andrea Shalal; Diana Mandiá, edited by Blandine Hénault)

Copyright © 2025 Thomson Reuters