EUR/USD: The greenback does not finally continue to catch up

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The euro bounced on its mobile average at 50 days (in orange) against the dollar, the greenback cannot take a decisive advantage after advances on the Sino-American commercial front. Concrete advances which do not settle the substance of the question.

As a reminder, for a period of 90 days, Washington will bring the customs duties imposed at 30% (against 145%), Beijing will lower them to 10% (against 125%). This reduction “is only temporary” mas The market thinks “that the worst of the trade war has passed and that the trend is in de -escalation”, underlines Deutsche Bank.

Please note, warns Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion. “After the disappointment of the” Liberation Day “, the financial markets very (too much?) Quickly integrated an outcome favorable to the bilateral negotiations to come on customs duties.”

“Donald Trump will not come back to the very principle of customs duties and it therefore seems difficult to adopt a more optimistic posture than that already integrated by the markets. Above all, the concrete effects of the business war on the results of companies do not yet seem completely at the center of attentions.”

Bovers are also awaiting the publication tomorrow of a salvo of major American indicators. This Thursday will indeed concentrate most of the publications of the week, apart from the inflation figures made public yesterday. We will therefore have to treat, within this hearty menu, production prices, retail sales, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, the manufacturing indices Empire State and Philly Fed, the monthly report on industry, all embellished with a J Powell speech.

The markets therefore learned of consumer prices in the United States on Tuesday, up 0.2% excluding food and energy in April, against expectations at +0.3%. This is the lowest pace since February 2021.

“American inflation was lower than forecasts in April. The threat of prices increased by customs duties moving away from recent agreements and advanced indicators of the housing sector indicating a slowdown in housing costs, the Federal Reserve will continue to envisage interest rates later in the year,” wrote Ing economists.

“The report on inflation (ICC) of April does not yet show an impact on customs duties decided by the new Trump administration. This should nevertheless materialize on the next, for example with the increase in the price of cars, and it is this prospect that makes the American Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain cautious”, advances, Bastien Drut, responsible for strategy and economic studies in CPRAM.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1360 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The euro / dollar is currently in the phase of an important graphic test: that of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), the last resumption of support dating from the sweater February 28. A rupture of this trend curve would release additional sales energy.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at USD 1,1012 and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics