Sydney (Reuters) -The shares slipped to Asia on Monday and oil prices briefly reached five -month heights, investors waiting with anxiety to see if Iran would retaliate to American attacks (link) on its nuclear sites, with the risks resulting for global activity and inflation.

The first movements were contained, the dollar having received only a small refuge offer and no sign of panic sales having been observed on the markets. Oil prices increased by around 2.8 %, but below their initial summits. [O/R]

The optimists hoped that Iran would come back now that its nuclear ambitions had been reduced, or even that a change of regime (link) would bring a government less hostile to power in this country.

JPMorgan analysts, however, warned that previous episodes of regime change in the region had generally resulted in an increase in oil prices of up to 76 % and an average increase of 30 % over time.

Access to the Strait of Ormuz (Link), which is only wide of approximately 33 km (21 miles) at its narrowest point and which sees around a quarter of world oil trade and 20 % of supplies in liquefied natural gas, will be decisive.

“The selective disruptions that frighten the oil tankers are more logical than the closure of the Strait of Ormuz, since Iran’s oil exports are also interrupted,” said Vivek Dhar, analyst of raw materials at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“In a scenario where Iran selectively interrupts maritime transport by the Strait of Ormuz, we see the Brent oil reaching at least 100 dollars per barrel.”

For the moment, the Brent was increasing relatively moderate from 2.7% to $ 79.12 a barrel, while the American crude increased by 2.8% to 75.98 dollars. Elsewhere on the raw materials markets, gold has dropped slightly from 0.1% to 3,363 dollars an ounce. [GOL/]

The stock markets have been resilient so far, the U&P 500 term contracts displaying a moderate drop of 0.5 % and the Nasdaq’s term contracts decreased by 0.6 %.

The MSCI index of the actions of Asia-Pacific outside Japan dropped by 0.5, and the Japanese Nikkei fell 0.9 %.

Eurostoxx 50 term contracts lost 0.7%, while FTSE term contracts fell 0.5%and Dax -term contracts slipped by 0.7%. Europe and Japan strongly depend on oil and LNG imports, while the United States is net exporters.

Powell questioning

The dollar gained 0.3% on the Japanese yen at 146.48 yen, while the euro dropped by 0.3% to $ 1,1481. The dollar index firmed from 0.17% to 99.078.

There was also no signs of rush to traditional safety of treasury bills, yields to 10 years having increased by 2 base points to 4.397%.

The term contracts on interest rates of the federal reserve were a little lower, probably reflecting fears that a sustained increase in oil prices only strengthens inflationary pressures at a time when customs duties are beginning to be felt on American prices.

The markets continue to estimate that the FED is unlikely to reduce its rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after the Governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller (Link), broke up the ranks and pleaded in favor of flexibility in July.

Most of the other Fed members, including President Jerome Powell, have been more cautious about policy, which leads the markets to bet than a reduction is much more likely in September.

At least 15 Fed officials speak this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from the legislators, who will certainly cover the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s customs tariffs and the attack on Iran.

The Middle East will be at the heart of the agenda of the meeting of NATO leaders (Link) in The Hague this week, where most of the members agreed to engage in a sharp increase in defense expenses.

Among the expected economic data are the figures for basic inflation in the United States and weekly unemployment benefits, as well as the first estimates of industrial activity in June worldwide.

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