Sydney (Reuters) -The main stock market indexes fell in Asia on Monday and oil prices have briefly reached their highest level for five months, investors waiting with anxiety to see if Iran would retaliate (link) to American attacks (link) on its nuclear sites, with the risks that arise for global activity and inflation.

Most market movements have been limited, the dollar benefiting from a modest refuge offer and no rush sign to bonds. Oil prices increased by around 1.5 %, but far from their initial summits.

The optimists hoped that Iran would come back now that its nuclear ambitions had been reduced, or even that a change of regime (link) would bring a government less hostile to power in this country.

“The markets perhaps react not to the escalation itself, but to the perception that it could reduce long-term uncertainty,” said Charu Chanaa, chief strategist at Saxo.

“That said, any sign of Iranian reprisals or threat to the Strait of Ormuz could quickly change the feeling and force the markets to reassess geopolitical risk more aggressively.”

The Strait of Ormuz (Link) is only around 33 km (21 miles) at its narrowest point and sees around a quarter of world oil trade and 20 % of liquefied natural gas supplies.

JPMorgan analysts have also warned of previous episodes of regime change in the region, which generally led to an outbreak of oil prices up to 76 % and an average increase of 30 % over time.

“The selective disturbances that scare away the oil tankers are more logical than the closure of the Strait of Ormuz, given that Iran oil exports would also be interrupted,” said Vivek Dhar, analyst of raw materials at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“In a scenario where Iran selectively interrupts maritime transport by the Strait of Ormuz, we see the Brent oil reaching at least 100 dollars per barrel.

Goldman Sachs (Link) warned that prices could temporarily reach $ 110 a barrel if the critical waterway was closed for a month.

For the moment, the Brent has experienced a relatively low increase of 1.4 % to $ 78.07 a barrel, while the American crude increased by 1.4 % to 74.88 dollars. Elsewhere on the raw materials markets, gold has slightly dropped by 0.3 % to 3,357 dollars perce.

Keep calm and continue

The global stock markets have been resistant so far, the term contracts of the S&P 500 losing only 0.1 % and the term contracts of the NASDAQ losing 0.2 %.

The widest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific actions outside Japan fell 1.0 %, while Chinese Blue Chips fell 0.2 %. The Japanese Nikkei fell 0.2 %, although surveys have shown that manufacturing activity (link) had returned to growth in June after almost a year of contraction.

The term contracts on Eurostoxx 50 lost 0.4 %, while the FTSE term contracts fell by 0.3 %and the Dax contracts slipped by 0.4 %. Europe and Japan strongly depend on imports of oil and LNG, while the United States is a net exporter.

The dollar gained 0.7 % on the Japanese yen at 147.07 yen, while the euro dropped by 0.2 % to $ 1,1497. The dollar index was slightly firm at 99.042.

There was also no rush sign to traditional safety of treasury bills, yields to 10 years having increased by 2 base points to 4.395 %.

The term contracts on interest rates of the federal reserve were a little lower, probably reflecting fears that a sustained increase in oil prices only strengthens inflationary pressures at a time when customs duties are beginning to be felt on American prices.

The markets continue to estimate that the FED is unlikely to reduce its rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after the Governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller (Link), broke the ranks and pleaded for a relaxation in July.

Most other Fed members, including President Jerome Powell, have been more cautious in terms of policy, which leads to betting markets than a reduction is much more likely in September.

At least 15 Fed officials are expressed this week, and Powell has to face two days of issues from the legislators, who will certainly cover the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s customs tariffs and the attack on Iran.

The Middle East will appear in good place on the agenda of the meeting of NATO leaders (link) in The Hague this week, where most of the members have agreed to engage in a sharp increase in defense spending.

Among the expected economic data are the figures for basic inflation in the United States and weekly unemployment benefits, as well as the first estimates of industrial activity in June worldwide.

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