(BFM Stock Exchange)-The Parisian index fell back on Monday, June 23 after the United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites this weekend. The market keeps its cool, however, monitoring the next step.

Geopolitics occupies more than ever the front of the stage on the markets. This Monday, June 23, CAC 40 opened down 0.52% to 7,549.92 points, while investors dissect weekend events in the Middle East.

The United States has struck three nuclear sites in Iran, namely those of Fordo, Natanz and Ispahan. President Donald Trump said that “monumental” damage had been inflicted on these sites. The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshian, promised a response.

Observers fear that reprisal measures include the closure of the Strait of Ormuz by Iran, by which 20 million barrels of oil per day pass, a fifth of global demand. Tehran also threatened to attack the US military bases in the Middle East.

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Strong uncertainties

“With regard to the future of the markets, it all depends if the Iranian regime uses oil as a weapon, in particular, if it seeks to close the Strait of Ormuz, where more than 20% of world oil pass daily,” said Deutsche Bank which calculated that such a closure could increase the price of oil to around $ 120 a barrel.

Oil prices do not fly away, however. After starting up sharply in the night from Sunday to Monday, oil then erased most of its earnings. The August contract on the Brent de Mer du Nord advances 1.4% to $ 78.09 per barrel while the same maturity on WTI advances 1.3% to 74.73 dollars per barrel.

“In a way, the dominant hypothesis is that Iran will not seek to destabilize the oil market in a dramatic way, for example by blocking the Strait of Ormuz, and even less to attack the oil production sites of other countries in the region”, judges Sebastian Paris Horvitz, director of research at LBPAM. “The essential reason is the almost vital need for Iran of financial resources that come from its oil exports,” he explains.

“By hitting Saudi or Qatari oil infrastructure, Iran may cause the whole Gulf in the conflict and alienate China, its biggest customer,” observes Stephen Innes, of SPI AM.

The market is therefore measured on Monday morning. Reactions on actions testify to this. If the CAC 40 evolves in the vast majority in the red, the strongest decrease does not exceed 2.1% (Stellantis). In addition, Air France-KLM, a value very sensitive to oil prices and which tends to fall when tensions go up in the Middle East, loses only 2%.