(BFM Stock Exchange) – The graphic processor specialist has delivered online results with expectations for his second quarter. But its income target for the current quarter has disappointed the most optimistic expectations, due to uncertainties on H20 flea deliveries in China.

A certain anxiety had seized Wall Street before the publication of Nvidia’s results.

Big winner of the boom in artificial intelligence (AI), the semiconductor specialist has benefited in recent years from the flight of demand for its graphic processors (GPU), which have become essential to give the necessary calculation power to the development of the great models of AI language, like those of Openai, Alphabet or Meta.

The accounts of the company founded and managed by Jensen Huang have become the large barometer of the request for AI. And, ultimately, the thermometer of the power of this theme on the stock market.

However, for several weeks, some investors have judged that valuations in American tech have proven to be demanding, of none of them seeing a bubble. This created a certain nervousness around the publication of Nvidia. According to Reuters, the options purchased by market operators upstream of the group’s results involved a potential variation in the 6%title, downward and upwards.

Ultimately, the copy rendered by the group did not cause an excessive shock wave, but a simple disappointment.

“The publication has stuck, but that was not the kind of crash that leaves debris on the highway, rather a donkey back on an otherwise clear road. The traders grimacted, tightened the belt, before realizing that the car continued to ride,” summarizes Stephen Innes of AM.

Disappointing income prospects

The NVIDIA action ended 3.1% on Wednesday in post-market trade.

The black point of the publication lies in income prospects for the current quarter. For this period which runs from the beginning of August to the end of October, the company said revenue a turnover around $ 54 billion. This figure implies growth over a year of 54% for the period, in deceleration compared to those of the two previous quarters (56% for the second and 69% for the first).

This forecast turns out, on paper, online with the consensus (the average forecast of analysts) visible Alpha, located around 53.54 billion dollars. But Gene Munster, manager at Deepwater AM, explains that Wall Street was waiting for a figure closer to $ 55 billion and Bloomberg notes that certain estimates were housed around $ 60 billion.

“These perspectives strengthen concern about the fact that the pace of investments in AI systems is unbearable,” writes the news agency.

“The forecast of $ 54 billion in Nvidia is in no way a disastrous, but for an action whose course is perfectly valued, be ‘online with expectations’ is synonymous with mediocrity”, judge Stephen Innes. “The Bulls (investors who relieve an increase in the title, editor’s note) had seen greater, and when we have already accumulated $ 2,000 billion in market capitalization since April, reaching the bar is not enough,” he added.

Nvidia in the midst of geopolitical tensions between China and the United States

Nvidia’s income prospect especially illustrates the uncertainties that the group faces in China.

To comply with a certain number of American regulations spent under the Biden administration, the company had designed H20 fleas specifically to export them to China, a flourishing market for AI.

But, in April, the Trump administration introduced export restrictions of these chips which return concretely to prohibit them. In the second quarter of its 2025-2026 financial year, which extended from early May to the end of July, Nvidia therefore registered any income linked to these H20 chips. The shortfall for the company was evaluated around $ 8 billion.

A certain hope was able to win the market, however, in mid-August. Several media had then reported that Nvidia and her rival AMD had accepted an agreement that would allow them to resume exports from flea market to China, in exchange for which the two companies would transfer 15% of the revenues from these exports to the American administration.

However, the United States has not yet concretely translated this agreement into the law. Colette Kress, NVIDIA’s financial director, told analysts on Wednesday that “US government had not published regulation codifying such a requirement (that of reversing 15% of revenues to the US administration, editor’s note)”.

Consequently, Nvidia chose, in its income target of $ 54 billion, not to include any income linked to the H20 flea. Colette Kress, however, said that, in absolute terms, the company could record between $ 2 and $ 5 billion in the turnover quarter generated by H20 fleas, if the group managed to overcome geopolitical challenges. “If we receive more orders, we will charge more,” added the financial director.

Beyond the procrastination of the Trump administration, the Chinese authorities encourage their large tech groups to put the sweet pedal on the products of Nvidia. The Southern China Morning Post reports that Beijing called large groups last week like Bytedance and Tencent to inform them of his concerns about the purchases of H20 fleas, fearing that they are translated into information leaks.

“Beijing has encouraged the abandonment of the use of American technology in AI systems to which the Chinese government has access,” said Bloomberg.

A request creates vigorous

Ultimately, the vagueness around the activity in China makes Nvidia’s prospects extremely difficult to anticipate and read for analysts. This while the country constitutes a gold mine for society. According to words reported by Bloomberg, Jensen Huang estimated that the market could grow 50% per year and estimated that China represented an opportunity at $ 50 billion for its group.

“The main obstacle for Nvidia is not silicon, but diplomacy,” said Reuters Michael Ashley Schulman, director of investments at Running Point Capital.

“Overall, if we take into account the history of China and the green light given by the White House despite some obstacles, this quarter and Nvidia’s prospects constitute an additional validation point for the AI ​​revolution”, wants to believe Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush, and undecrotable optimistic.

These questions around perspectives and China have relegated Nvidia’s results to the second level for the second quarter. Over this period, the group released income of $ 46.74 billion, up 56% over a year and 6% compared to the previous quarter. The only “Data Center” division, the one that benefits from the development of AI, saw its income increase by 56% over one year to 41.1 billion dollars.

The profit reached $ 26.4 billion while profit per share was $ 1.04.

According to a visible alpha consensus, analysts were tabling on income of $ 46.4 billion, including $ 41.25 billion. In other words, Nvidia has slightly missed expectations in its flagship division. The profit per share was expected at $ 1.01.

Brian Colallo, from Morningstar does not see a huge surprise in these results. But “the demand for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence products remains very strong, without any sign of slowdown,” he notes.

“Turnover (or its absence) in China adds to volatility, but we are particularly impressed by the deployment of Blackwell Ultra and the high demand from the main American Cloud customers,” added the analyst.

NVIDIA Blackwell ultra fleas are part of the group’s new GPU Blackwell architecture, more efficient and also less energy -consuming. The demand for these products accelerates, the company having indicated that its income from Blackwell fleas had increased by 17% compared to the previous quarter.