(BFM Stock Exchange) – The Trump administration announced the establishment on October 1 of customs surcharge of 25% on imports of heavy goods vehicles. This creates losers and winners on Friday, September 26.

Once again, Donald Trump upset the automotive sector on the stock market with customs duties. Even if, in this specific case, the measure is more targeted than before.

The American president announced on Thursday evening a salvo of new customs rights, including the establishment of 25% surcharge on heavy goods vehicles, from October 1. Details still lack the application of these customs duties.

The question will be in particular to know if these surcharge will be accumulated on those existing for all motor vehicles or if they will apply to vehicles produced in Mexico and which nevertheless respect the terms of the free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and the United States (USMCA). When in doubt, Bernstein thinks that this will be the case.

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Winners and losers

“This measure is very positive for Paccar and Volvo, which make 95% and 100% of their trucks in the United States respectively and 100% respectively for the American market, while it is very negative for Daimler and Traton, which make 72% and 98% of their trucks intended for the American market in Mexico respectively,” wrote the financial intermediary in a note.

In Frankfurt, the Daimler Trucks action loses 2.4%, while Traton, an ex-Filiale from Volkswagen abandons 2%. Conversely to Wall Street, the American Paccar takes 6.7% in the pre -opening exchanges. In Stockholm, Volvo won 3.8%.

The manufacturers have so far had important incentives to produce on Mexican soil rather than in the United States. Bernstein notes that all the costs, including labor, are lower there.

“In addition, as trucks produced in Mexico generally use motorcycle groups imported from the United States and that these represent a significant part of the total cost of components, they are mostly in accordance with the USMCA, which means that they were not subject to any customs rights when they enter the United States,” continues the financial intermediary.

Finally, producing in Mexico also allows companies to also escape customs duties on imports of aluminum and steel which must be paid in the United States.

From now on, Bernstein believes that these customs duties could allow Paccar and Volvo to win “many market share to the” Daimler and Navistar, a traton brand.