CAC 40: Cac patina

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The CAC 40 index will have spent a week marked with nervousness under the resistance of the 7,940 points, heckled by the prudent attitude of J Powell, an attitude confirmed by a battery of good American statistical indicators. All in a custom customs context, and a deleterious geopolitical situation between Russia and NATO.

Investors on Friday took note of inflation data for the month of August in accordance with expectations. According to the PCE index, inflation flagship of the American federal reserve, consumer prices increased last month, by 2.7% over a year, and 2.9% over one year in underlying data (“Core PCE”). A price evolution that turns out to be online with expectations.

“The favorite inflation measurement of the Fed, the ‘Core PCE’, still does not show a frank acceleration sign, the increases in customs duties explaining only a surplus of inflation of approximately 3 tenths in accumulated. Under these conditions, the Fed will not hesitate to prioritize the stabilization of the labor market compared to inflation if necessary”, advances in economic strategy and economic studies in CPRAM.

On Thursday, the battery of American macroeconomic statistics on the program only strengthened the prudent approach of J Powell in its (very) progressive drop -down rate of guiding rates. “Good news is Bad News”, according to the stock market adage against intuitive.

In detail, the final data of GDP in the second quarter, came out far beyond the previous estimates, at +3.8% in annualized pace, clearly marked the session. In addition, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, at 218,000 new units, have rather pleasantly surprised, as well as the dynamics of sustainable goods.

“Tuesday evening, Jerome Powell warned against” too sustained “rate drops that would slip inflation. According to him, interest rates are currently” at the right level to react to potential economic developments “. The 25 BPS drop [le 18/09] Was presented as a “precaution” drop to allow the American economy to find it and avoid too much degradation of the labor market “, lights up Grégoire Kounowski, Investment Advisor at Norman K.

On the values ​​side, the CAC 40 was carried by Essilorluxottica, one of its most important stock markets. The optical group won 2.4% after its range of glasses against infantile myopia Stellest was approved in the United States.

Pernod Ricard, on the other hand, lost 2.5% while Bank of America lowered his advice to “buy” neutral “on the title. The American bank believes that the resumption of the activity of the group of spirits will take more time than it anticipated it previously. The establishment expects the exercise ended in 2026 to be still weak, tabling on a fall in comparable data of 0.5%, a performance that would be less good than those of its comparables.

Sanofi managed to grab 1.03% despite new customs developments. Donald Trump opened a new chapter on customs duties, and announced on Thursday evening a battery of new customs surcharges, with a rate of 100% on imported patented drugs, 25% on imports of heavy goods vehicles and 50% on kitchen cabinets and sinks. “Several global pharmaceutical groups, including Astrazeneca, Roche and Sanofi, have already announced investment in the United States to mitigate the impact of future customs duties on imports of drugs,” recalls Antoine Fraysse-Soulier, market analyst for Etoro.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the last session of the week in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.65%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.44%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, grabbed 0.59% to 6,643 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market:

> The single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1730.

> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 65.30.

> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, were negotiated slightly above 4.16%.

> As for the Vix, it was worth 15.30 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow primarily the sales of current housing across the Atlantic and new interventions of Fed members.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy. This level (7,940 points) constitutes a major resistance. The index multiplies the candles with high pronounced wick on its approach.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics