(News Bulletin 247) – Persistent bearish bias on the Euro against the Dollar, the spot being under pressure from the prospect of new binding measures in Europe to fight against the cornavirus. This is already the case in Austria, which applied this Monday morning the general confinement decided last week. The tone is particularly tough in Germany, where the Minister of Health, Jesn Spahn, who did not exclude last week to resort to containment decisions, went much further in the elements of language. He summed up in a chilling phrase the health situation in his country, faced with a resurgence of the epidemic: The Germans will be “vaccinated, cured or dead” by the end of winter because of the current outbreak of infections to Covid-19 in the country, which no longer excludes compulsory vaccination.
Forex traders will follow the process of appointing the next Fed Chairman, the renewal of J. Powell is not guaranteed. “The choice of President Joe Biden should fall on current President Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard who is currently governor of the Fed. The latter is seen as a dove and his appointment could help support the markets again in the short term. “, analyzes Vincent Boy (IG France).
In the statistical chapter Friday, the German “producer” prices soared, to + 3.8% monthly (from one month to another), literally exploding the consensus. No major US figure was on the agenda on Friday. As a reminder Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index came out unexpectedly sharply up to 39.0, beating the target flat. On the other hand, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits were slightly disappointing. They will have had the advantage of not putting more pressure on the Fed. To be followed on the statistical agenda this Monday, as a priority, the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone at 4:00 p.m. and sales of second-hand homes in the United States at 4:00 p.m. also.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1280$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
We clarified the following on Wednesday, as a reminder: “A break in a fragile support zone at 1.1530 would increase volatility. The working band between $ 1.1530 and $ 1.1675 would then be obsolete.” This zone gave way, with validation by volatility. The current seller is thereby strengthened. Next bearish target locked at $ 1.1150. And this without excluding the possibility of a pullback over the $ 1.1530.
As a result, a sharp punctual reaction of protest will have to be considered.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
Our entry point is at 1.1284 USD. The price target for our bearish scenario is at 1.1151 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.1331 USD.
The expected return on this Forex strategy is 133 pips and the risk of loss is 47 pips.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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