Absence of Atlantic hurricane in August for the first time in 25 years puzzles scientists

August is Atlantic hurricane season.

In recent times, some of the most devastating hurricanes have hit this month: Katrina, August 23-25, 2005, or Andrew, August 16-28, 1992, among others.

However, the month was over, and according to meteorological records, no hurricanes were named during this period and only three storms were named.

It’s something unusual for experts: it’s the first time this has happened since 1997.

And it’s even more unexpected after 2021 was a record year for hurricane formation (in one week, four such storms were recorded at the same time).

All this contrasts with what meteorological observatories had predicted: that the hurricane season would be very similar to the year before.

For Jim Dale, a meteorologist at the British Weather Services, the technical reason for this has to do with a combination of factors: dry and stable air, with the presence of dust from the Sahara desert, which prevents the formation of storms, and hostile winds that suppressed the generation of hurricanes.

“However, there is no convincing explanation as to why the first hurricane of the season, which started on June 1, only appeared in September. There is a kind of chaos, which means that in 2021 we had five weather events at once and this year, in over a month, we haven’t seen anything serious,” Dale told BBC Mundo.

For Dale it is clear that climate change is related to this type of climate behavior, but it is not the only explanation.

“One thing should be clear: there is no single answer to this phenomenon. What we see here is the sum of many factors that coincide at this moment. But let’s make it very clear that the season is not over”, says the meteorologist.

The First Hurricane: Also Unusual

After the end of August, hurricanes began to appear.

The first of the season was named Danielle and it has proved unusual: it is the latest first Atlantic hurricane of the season since 2013.

Furthermore, “it forms at latitude 38 north, an unusual location for these phenomena,” says Dale.

He adds that for hurricanes to gain strength, the thrust of a warm current is needed.

“This is evidence of how climate change is affecting the presence of these phenomena. Increasingly to the north we find warm currents, which will continue to provoke the appearance of hurricanes in this region of the planet”, he adds.

Miami TV affiliate WPLG hurricane expert Michael Lowry wrote on his Twitter account that the sea surface temperature near where Danielle formed exceeded 26ºC for the first time since satellite recording began.

“At this temperature, they are competing with the warm waters of the Caribbean,” adds Lowry.

However, both Dale and other experts point out that this “slow” start to the season doesn’t mean there won’t be hurricanes that can cause serious damage.

“We’re looking at a below-average season, but let’s not forget that predictions are that this will be an above-average season and it remains to be seen how that will end,” Dale said.

– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/geral-62819147