Anti-environmental bench will have 41% of seats in the Chamber, according to analysis

The new Congress is not only more to the right — it has also become more anti-environmental. The parties that vote against the protection of the environment gained reinforcements, while supporters of the cause were not able to be reelected.

The parties whose positions are traditionally more distant from environmental defense made 213 deputies, representing 41.5% of the votes in the Chamber. They are: PP, União Brasil, Solidarity, PL, PTB and Novo.

The parties that concentrate environmentalist votes will have 137 of the 513 seats in the Chamber (26.7%). The group comprises Rede, PCdoB, PT, PSOL, PSB, PV, PDT, Avante and Cidadania.

The classification was based on the parties’ environmental convergence index, calculated by the Farol Verde panel, from the IDS (Democracy and Sustainability Institute).

Called ICAt, the ranking gave a score from 0% to 100% for each of the parties. By calculation, the closer to 100%, the greener the acronym’s voting history in the last legislature.

The intermediate parties, whose convergence with the environmentalist position has been between 31% and 49% in recent years, will have 163 deputies. They are: Pros, Patriota, PSDB, MDB, PSD, Republicans, Podemos and PSC.

Farol Verde also did the math for a re-elected deputy, evaluating the past of its votes on environmental matters, since the positions of parliamentarians may differ from those of the parties. To this calculation, the projection of the vote of the newly elected was added, considering the ICAt of their parties.

Based on the analysis by a deputy, Farol Verde concluded that the anti-environmental composition of the Chamber has increased. Anti-environmental deputies accounted for 37% of the votes in the Chamber and are now expected to reach 42.6%. Intermediate parliamentarians rose from 33% to 30.4% and green ones, from 30% to 27%.

André Lima, coordinator of Farol Verde and senior consultant on socio-environmental policy and law at the IDS, assesses, however, that “there is room to increase adherence to the environmental vote, working on dialogue with the benches”.

The report considered the votes of the parties in projects on socio-environmental matters with a nominal vote in the last legislature. The index was measured from the agreement with the vote of the leader of the Environmentalist Parliamentary Front in the Chamber and Senate.

The list of bills considered includes both texts with potential environmental setback (PLs on land regularization, environmental licensing and pesticides) and positive guidelines for the environment (carbon market regulation and payment for environmental services).

The average rate of environmental convergence of the new Chamber of Deputies is 42%, but among representatives of Amazonian states, it is even lower: only 35%.

^{Source: Farol Verde}

“The data suggest that the voices that will mostly speak on behalf of voters in the Amazon have low adherence to climate and socio-environmental agendas”, summarizes the report.

The new composition of the Congress was also evaluated by the agency focused on socio-environmental advocacy Pulso Público. “The balance for the environmental agenda was mostly negative”, says the analysis, obtained exclusively by Sheet.

The work considers the profile of the elected names, classifying them as allies or detractors of the environmental agenda based on their previous performance and positions already known.

“Old names in agribusiness won reelection,” says the study, which also highlights a new detractor: Ricardo Salles (PL-SP), former Minister of the Environment under Jair Bolsonaro.

On the other hand, although the environmentalist caucus has lost protagonists, such as Rodrigo Agostinho (PSB-SP) and Joenia Wapichana (Rede-RR), who were unable to be reelected, it will have new names that prioritize the agenda, such as Marina Silva (Rede -SP), Sônia Guajajara (PSOL-SP), Célia Xakriabá (PSOL-MG) and Duda Salabert (PDT-MG).

As for the Senate, the second round should still bring definitions, since five current senators are running for state governments.

From what can be seen so far, the potential loss is just two environmental votes, according to Farol Verde. Although the picture of the house has little variation, the environmental convergence was already low, highlights the analysis.

“The majority dissenting bench in relation to the climate and environment agendas in the Senate is already at least 39.5%, and can reach 42%”, says the study.

Pulso Público, however, highlights in its analysis that the Senate in recent years, compared to the Chamber, has contained environmental setbacks.

“During the last legislature, the Senate held a considerable part of the agenda against the environment (land tenure regularization, environmental licensing, pesticides, self-control, etc.)”, cites the work.

Three former Bolsonaro ministers elected to the Senate — Damares Alves (Republicans-DF), Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) and Marcos Pontes (PL-SP) — took seats with names aligned with environmentalism. The balance was offset by exchanges with the opposite sign, such as the arrival of Flávio Dino (PSB-MA) in the vacancy that belonged to Roberto Rocha (PTB-MA).

“The Senate loses the mandate of Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN), who ran as the first alternate for Carlos Eduardo (PDT-RN) [não eleito], and makes room for Rogério Marinho (PL-RN). The former Minister of Agriculture of Jair Bolsonaro, Tereza Cristina (PP-MS), adds to the list of actors representing agribusiness, as well as the former secretary of Aquaculture and Fisheries, Jorge Seif Junior (PL-SC)”, highlights the Public Pulse analysis.

In 2019, Seif claimed that the fish would be smart and would dodge the oil slicks that hit the beaches of the Northeast.

“We lost names that weren’t as prominent, but were open to listening to the environmentalist wing on specific issues,” says political scientist Ícaro Silva, project leader at Pulso Público.

He bets, however, that it is still possible to build understandings with more pragmatic names on the right. “The PL itself, even being Bolsonaro’s, has the pragmatism of some figures”, he evaluates.

“We also need to look for information about the newly elected. There are new parliamentarians who bring the animal cause, for example. So, while the general context tends to get worse, we need to look at the new ones and check alignments.”

Pulso Público also warns of the possible acceleration in the processing of projects reported by parliamentarians who were not reelected. Recent movements indicate that the bill on pesticides (PL 1459/22), reported by the chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Acir Gurgacz (PDT-RO), who was unable to renew his mandate, could be voted on later this year.

On the other hand, Senator Kátia Abreu (PP-TO), who reports the PL on environmental licensing and also did not get reelection, told Sheet which should not press for approval this year.

“I don’t think it’s time to approve it, I think it has to wait for the new National Congress. It’s something so serious and so important that I don’t want to have the vanity to let this report be approved in my name,” he said.

_{The Planeta em Transe project is supported by the Open Society Foundations.}