With Lula and Bolsonaro, Brazil will have different facets at COP27

Brazil will have different Brazils at COP27, the UN (United Nations) conference on climate change, in Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, starting this Sunday (6th).

One of them will be that of the current Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government, which should draw attention to Brazil’s clean energy potential. The other will be that of President-elect Lula (PT), who placed, in his speech after his election victory, the climate crisis and the Amazon — which is suffering from the explosion of destruction in Bolsonaro’s administration — as central points of the future government.

Bolsonaro’s Brazil, as it has been, must try to draw attention to the high levels of deforestation plaguing the Amazon — especially, but not just. Internationally, the current president tries to make believe that the environmental situation in Brazil is under control and that most of the forest is untouched – which is false.

At the last COP, in Glasgow, UK, annual data from INPE (National Institute for Space Research) on deforestation were ready, but were only released by the government after the conference.

During the event, however, record deforestation data for October came out. Meanwhile, Minister Joaquim Leite (Environment), spoke at the conference about a “real Brazil”, with “inclusive green development”, and said he was unaware of the data.

According to the press office of the Ministry of the Environment, Leite will go to the second week of COP27. The event runs until the 18th.

In recent weeks, Leite has been posting about energy issues, with photos of solar panels and electric cars. One of the publications is a video in English dedicated to COP27 in which Brazil is classified as a green energy country — the Amazon or other biomes are not mentioned.

The advertising does justice to reality. After all, most of the Brazilian energy is really renewable, coming from hydroelectric plants.

Despite this, in addition to the explosive deforestation of recent years — Brazil’s main source of emissions — the Bolsonaro government was marked by investment in energy generation from fossil fuel-fired thermoelectric plants, recalls Stela Herschmann, a climate policy specialist at the Observatório do Brasil. Climate.

The Brazilian matrix is ​​being polluted for the future, says Herschmann. “It was the government that passed a sustainable coal program and it was the government that approved a ‘tortoise’ in the privatization of Eletrobras to contract gas-fired thermoelectric plants in the North and Northeast. They want to sell themselves to the world with one thing, but internally they are doing another one.”

The other Brazil at the COP will be Lula’s. In four years of government, Bolsonaro has not been to any COP. Newly elected, PT must be present in the second week of the event.

Lula’s move is welcomed by Izabella Teixeira, one of the “friends of COP27” —an advisory group for the presidency of the event— and co-chair of the International Resource Panel, the political-scientific platform of UNEP (United Nations Program for Environment).

After all, there is meaning in the president-elect’s trip to the main stage of climate discussions, which, this year, takes place in an African country. Teixeira, who participated in Lula’s government plan and was Minister of the Environment from 2010 to 2016, also highlights that the trip will be at the invitation of the Legal Amazon Consortium, a group created by governors of the region during Bolsonaro’s term.

They are signs of union, after divisions created by Bolsonaro, points out Teixeira, who sees a conference with possible positive attention for Brazil. At COP27, Brazil can once again become a leading voice, she bets.

The former Minister of the Environment Marina Silva, another name close to Lula who will attend the conference, is already talking about rescuing the Brazilian role as a mediator in negotiations on challenging issues, such as losses and damages. She also points to a possible more active participation of the country in climate finance.

So, even if the current administration continues to have pen in hand, it will not necessarily receive much attention at the conference. “Everyone will want to talk to the transitional government that is going to go”, evaluates Herschmann.

For the specialist, the climate issue will be the great asset for Lula’s international reinsertion. Therefore, she expects to see some commitment or signaling from the president-elect at the COP. A new goal for reducing emissions, which would correct the Bolsonaro government’s climate pedaling – given by a change in the baseline data of the assumed commitment – ​​is a possibility.

Bolsonaro’s actions helped to create the multiple Brazils that will be present in Egypt. In its first year of government, the country did not bring an official stand to COP25 — which at the request of the president was not held in Brazil.

Civil society then organized itself into its own space, the Brazil Climate Action Hub. The stand will once again be present at COP27, with an area of ​​150 m². At the 2021 conference, the place even attracted authorities, while the official Brazilian stand was sometimes empty.

This time, the federal government will have a stand with approximately 300 m², in which sectors of the economy will also be present, such as the CNI (National Confederation of Industry) and the CNA (Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock).

The governors of the Amazon will also have their own stand, covering 120 m². At least five governors (AC, AP, MT, PA and TO) confirmed going to the event. Set up in the first year of the Bolsonaro government, the initiative allowed states to bypass the federal government to seek international funds.

Several of the Amazon governors, however, are allies of Bolsonaro and, of course, also have responsibilities in combating or not deforestation in the region.

One last Brazil will still be present, as usual, at COP27: the negotiators, linked to Itamaraty. According to experts consulted by the Sheetthis more technical group should not present major changes, even with the change of government.

There was, however, agitation at COP25, when then Minister Ricardo Salles (Environment), who headed the Brazilian delegation, obstructed the negotiation. At the time, Salles asked for money to unlock the conversations.

At COP26, with Joaquim Leite at the helm, the situation calmed down. In fact, the Brazilian diplomatic team formulated an important proposal to unlock discussions on the carbon market.

“The positions they [negociadores] have to take to the negotiation tables are already very consolidated, historical. Brazil is positioning itself with other Latin American countries”, says Herschmann.

In response to a question from the SheetItamaraty states that the focus of COP27 will be on adaptation and means of implementation, such as the promise of developed countries to allocate resources to combat climate impacts in developing countries.

Especially as it is a COP in Africa, the issue of climate finance and the loss and damage resulting from extreme events should gain strength.

“It is a COP of implementation, of ways to act”, concludes Teixeira.

_{The Planeta em Transe project is supported by the Open Society Foundations.}