The number of hot days in Greece is increasing, according to a study

A significant increase is expected in the days with temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius in Greece, in the summer, until 2050, as shown, among others, by a study by a group of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, in the context of CLIMPACT – National Network for Climate Change and its Effects.

In particular, as the study finds, days with a temperature greater than 35°C in summer may reach up to 16 more days in some regions by 2050.

At the heart of the study by the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki team made up of AUTH professors, Th. Mavrommatis, D. Mela and P. Zani and the postdocs A. Georgoulia and D. Akritidesin its context CLIMPACT– National Network on Climate Change and Impacts the impacts of climate change, in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future, on wheat, tomato, cotton, potato, grapevine, rice and the olive. According to the study, until the end of the 21st century, adverse climatic indicators of temperature and precipitation are going to show a significant change in their seasonal frequency during critical periods for the development and production of basic crops of Greek agriculture.

At the same time, as the study shows, most days with increased temperatures as well as the lack of water will have negative effects on the above crops despite the reduction of frost days. “Increased heat stress and water scarcity are expected to have negative seasonal effects on these crops, in contrast to the reduction of frost days,” the study says, however, adding that the final result of the positive and negative effects on crop yields is still uncertain.

Specifically, according to the study, the analyzes of days with a maximum temperature of more than 30 °C in spring and tropical nights (with a minimum temperature of more than 20 °C) in spring-summer both in the near and far future present ” insignificant increases’ (except for low-altitude areas in Macedonia and Thessaly) which will reach 4 and 25 days/year for the first and second indicators, respectively. On the contrary, the corresponding forecasts for the frequency of days with a maximum temperature greater than 35°C in summer show significant increases (up to 16 days/year) (except for the mountainous areas in Pindos, Macedonia and the Peloponnese).

Conversely, sharp reductions in the number of spring frost days are expected to favor wheat, cotton, potato, tomato and grapevine in the near and far future, the study says.

Regarding the frequency of rainy days, the study points out that by 2050 the reductions in the frequency of days with rainfall greater than 1 mm will be insignificant, in spring and summer (up to 4-5 days/year), however in the distant future (until 2100) likely to rise to 8-9 days/year throughout Greece. Therefore, “increased water deficit in spring is expected to negatively affect wheat, potato and olive in summer, tomato and grapevine in spring-summer, especially in the 2nd half of the 21st century, according to the far future scenario “, the study emphasizes.

“Approximately 40% of Greek land is devoted to agriculture, of which approximately 30% is irrigated. As a result, agriculture is an important sector of the Greek economy that is, however, directly affected by the weather and climate in various ways, and this will continue in the future”, note the AUTH researchers in their study.

“At the same time, however, agriculture contributes significantly to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants (European Environment Agency 2019). The effects of climate change (and especially the combination of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration) on the agricultural sector differ from region to region in Europe. In the Mediterranean region in particular, the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation will have direct effects on crop yields and indirect effects on water availability. Higher temperatures will create more suitable conditions for the proliferation of weeds and pests, while reductions in rainfall are expected to increase the likelihood of short-term crop failures and long-term reductions in production,” the study underlines.

At the same time, as pointed out, the region of south-eastern Europe is the one that gathers the highest temperatures, especially the Mediterranean region. According to the above study by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the main effects of climate change in the Mediterranean, among others, include an increase in hot days, a decrease in rainfall, an increased frequency of droughts, a decrease in biodiversity, a water deficit in crops and the reduction of production in crops.

It is noted that the analysis was based on a set of 11 simulations, high resolution, from regional climate models, made in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX European action. These covered the historical period 1950-2005 and the future period 2006-2100, under the influence of three greenhouse gas emission scenarios assuming strong, moderate and no mitigation.

RES-EMP

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