The meteorological phenomenon El Niño has a strong chance of forming this year and causing temperatures to rise to new records, the UN warns.

The World Meteorological Organization now estimates that there is a 60% chance of El Niño developing by the end of July and an 80% chance by the end of September.

El Niño is a natural meteorological phenomenon associated with increase in temperaturesn, increased drought in some parts of the world and heavy rainfall in others.

It developed for the last time in 2018-2019 and gave way to a particularly long La Niña episode that causes the opposite effects and mainly a drop in temperatures.

Despite this factor, the last eight years have been the warmest that have ever been recorded.

Without La Niña, the situation could be even worse.

The La Niña phenomenon “acted as a temporary brake on the increase in global temperatures,” WMO Director Petteri Taallas said in a statement. “The development of El Niño will likely lead to a new peak in global warming and increase the chances of record-breaking temperatures,” he warns.

Even more extreme

At this stage, it is not possible to predict the intensity or duration of the El Niño episode ahead. The last such episode was considered weak, but the one immediately preceding, the episode of 2014-2016, was strong and had devastating consequences.

The WMO notes that 2016 was “the warmest year on record due to the ‘double effect’ resulting from the combination of a very strong El Niño and warming from greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activity”.

The consequences of El Niño on temperatures are usually felt in the year following the occurrence of the weather phenomenon and will therefore be felt in 2024, the World Meteorological Organization points out.

“The world must prepare for the development of Niño,” warns the director of the organization.

It is likely that “it will bring a respite to the drought in the Horn of Africa and other effects associated with La Niña, but it could also cause more extreme weather and climate events,” he says, pointing to the need for early warning systems – which is one of the WFP’s priorities – to protect the most threatened populations.

No two El Niño events are alike and their effects depend in part on the time of year, the WMO explains, adding that national meteorological services will closely monitor the progress of the impending El Niño episode.

The phenomenon develops on average kanywhere from two to seven years and lasts about nine to twelve months. It is associated with increasing ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño tends to cause an increase in rainfall in some areas of South America and the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia.

During the arctic summer – the warm season in the Northern Hemisphere and cold in the Southern Hemisphere – the warming of surface waters caused by El Niño can also fuel cyclones in the eastern Pacific Ocean while preventing them from forming in the Atlantic Ocean, explains the World Meteorological Organization.