By Kristy Siegfried

The climate crisis and human displacement are increasingly intertwined. Climate-related disasters caused more than half of new displacements in 2022, while nearly 60% of refugees and internally displaced people now live in countries that are among the most vulnerable to climate change.

Although today we are more aware of the link between climate change and displacement, the ways in which rapid climate change forces people to move and makes life even more difficult for those already displaced are complex and constantly changing. Thus, myths and misinformation abound. We’ve rounded up five of the most common myths related to the climate crisis and displacement, debunking them with what we really know.

Myth #1
Climate change will cause massive population movements from the Global South to the Global North

Truth:

This assessment is not supported by any evidence so far. The majority of people who are forced to leave their homes due to climate disasters move within their own countries. In 2022, for example, disasters caused a record 32.6 million internally displaced people, 98 percent of whom were displaced by weather-related hazards such as floods, storms, wildfires and droughts, according to the International Center for Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC).

Less data is available on cross-border movements as a result of disasters, but we know that 70 percent of all refugees live in countries neighboring their country of origin. Whether fleeing conflict or disaster, people prefer to stay as close to home and family as possible. Those forced to leave an area severely affected by climate change are also less likely to have the means to travel long distances.

Myth #2
People displaced by climate change are ‘climate refugees’

Truth:

The term “climate refugees” is often used by the media to describe people who are forced to move from their homes due to climate-related events. However, this term is not formally recognized in international law. As mentioned above, most climate-related displacement takes place within a State’s borders, while the 1951 Refugee Convention offers protection only to those fleeing war, violence, conflict or persecution who have crossed international borders to find security. Displacement solely in the context of climate change or disasters is not covered by the 1951 Convention. However, the Convention may apply where climate change increases the risk that a person will face persecution or violence. For example, in northern Cameroon in 2021, hundreds of people were killed and tens of thousands fled to neighboring Chad after violence broke out between herders and fishermen due to the depletion of water resources due to climate change.

Regional refugee legislation can also provide protection. Both the Organization of African Unity Convention and the Cartagena Declaration in Latin America recognize as refugees those seeking protection due to events that “seriously disturb public order,” which could include climate-related disasters.

Myth #3
When we talk about climate-related displacement or movement, we are only referring to people fleeing extreme weather events

Truth:

As climate change causes more frequent and extreme weather events, more people are displaced by floods, cyclones and droughts. The nearly 32 million displacements caused by weather-related hazards in 2022 represent a 41 percent increase compared to 2008 levels. But in addition to displacements resulting directly from extreme weather, climate change is what we call a “threat multiplier” — it magnifies the impact of other factors that can contribute to displacement, such as poverty, loss of livelihoods and tensions related to dwindling natural resources and creating conditions that can ultimately lead to conflict and displacement. In Burkina Faso, for example, some of the worst violence and displacement in recent years has occurred in the poorest areas most affected by the drought, where armed groups have exploited conflicts over limited water resources and arable land. At the same time, violence and conflict can seriously undermine the ability of governments to deal with the effects of climate change.

Myth #4
We can predict the number of people who will be displaced by climate change

Truth:

Although we know that sudden disasters displace millions of people around the world, the complex interplay between climate and other factors, such as conflict and vulnerability, prevents us from knowing how much displacement can be attributed to climate change alone.

Predicting the number of people who will be displaced in the future is even more difficult because that number will be largely determined by the steps we take now to limit warming and adapt to a changing climate. What we can do today is use data to estimate trends and future climate risks, predict the vulnerability of different populations, and identify adaptation and preparedness efforts that can mitigate those risks. as well as future displacements. The Sahel Predictive Analytics Project, for example, identifies key drivers of vulnerability in the Sahel – including climate change – and then makes predictions about how those risks might change in the future depending on how timely the response is.

Myth #5
It is too late, there is nothing we can do to prevent climate change-related displacement.

Truth:

It is true that the climate is already changing and that the average temperature is now about 1.1°C higher than it was in the late 1800s. But it is not too late to act, either to reduce emissions and minimize further global warming, or to invest in adaptation actions that increase the resilience of vulnerable populations and reduce the risk of human displacement or other adverse impacts. We can help people better prepare for extreme weather and adapt to a changing climate. We can also tackle some of the other root causes of displacement exacerbated by climate change, such as poverty, inequality and violence.

Refugees and internally displaced people are among those taking action to build resilience and adapt to the effects of climate change, for example through tree planting programs, lobbying campaigns, disaster preparedness efforts and fighting forest fires. At this year’s UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai – COP28 – they are calling for more support for refugee organizations making such interventions and for a seat at the table to ensure decisions are not made for them, without them.

Source: UNHCR Greece