Brazil has already submitted an addendum in which the goal of climate neutrality until 2050 is made official to the UNFCCC (the acronym in English for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). In the document, however, so far, the Brazilian government makes no mention of another recent pledge, presented at COP26, the United Nations Conference on Climate Change.
The text does not speak of the objective of cutting 50% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. This commitment, as well as the commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050, was assumed to the world by the Environment Minister, Joaquim Leite, on the 1st. The broadcast with your statement was shown at the event in Glasgow (Scotland).
The letter committing to neutrality was submitted to the Framework Convention the day before the announcement, on October 31st.
The next day, the minister, who was in Brasilia on the date, described the goals for COP26 right after a video in which President Jair Bolsonaro (no party), without mentioning specific objectives, said that the Brazilian initiatives are in line with the global response to climate change. The president, in his speech, also stated that he had authorized Leite “to present new climate goals”.
The only novelty, however, was the promise of a 50% cut by the end of the decade. The commitment to climate neutrality by 2050 had already been made by Bolsonaro, in April, at the Climate Summit convened by US President Joe Biden.
The announcement of the cut by half of emissions this decade — despite practically equaling the initial Brazilian target under the Paris Agreement — was received with enthusiasm by international authorities.
Now, to be officially counted with the United Nations, this announcement for 2030 still needs to be formalized, as it is not in the last addendum. There is still no date for this, however.
The non-formalization would result in more criticism, in addition to the permanence of the previous target, which placed the country as one of the only two nations with NDCs (Nationally Determined Contribution, which, in general terms, can be translated as the climate target the country under the Paris Agreement) that could result in an increase in emissions.
The current decade is seen as a key period for at least managing to reduce the impacts of the climate crisis. Even significant emission reductions, however, will still not be enough to stop all the changes, some of which are irreversible, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
A sheet questioned the Ministry of the Environment about the absence, in the addendum letter to the Brazilian NDC presented on October 31, of the new 2030 objective. There was no response until the publication of this article.
Also sought after, Itamaraty said that the goal of 50% reduction in emissions followed “technical and political consultations” and that the decision was taken “before the start of COP26”. However, it was not informed how and when it will be formalized.
Itamaraty also stated that the “Brazilian NDC was prepared with the aim of achieving the long-term objective (climate neutrality) in 2060”. “The letter communicates the anticipation of this goal to 2050 and indicates that the NDC will be updated in due course (‘in due course’), in order to make it compatible with this anticipation of ten years”, he added, in a note.
The Foreign Ministry also states, without mentioning the 2030 pledge, that a new NDC, consistent with the plan to achieve neutrality in 2050, will be submitted. The folder also says that this requires “careful and detailed technical work and will be done [a submissão] opportunely”.
For Natalie Unterstell, a public policy and climate change specialist who coordinates the Talanoa Institute’s “Politics for Whole” project, the current scenario raises doubts.
It is necessary at this time, she says, since there is still no commitment in the addendum and that the submission will take place “in time”, it is necessary to clarify whether the promise of the Environment Minister at COP26 is just a goal to be targeted or if it in fact it will be part of a new NDC.
“There is no reasonable justification for a minister of state to speak on the first day of COP26 about a new target without explaining it, without going into detail,” says Unterstell. “The careful technical work has already been done. Now the question is to have careful and well-done political work. There is no lack of well-done science in Brazil. What is lacking is political work and public policy based on climate science.”
Understand what is ‘climate riding’
The initial Brazilian NDC, presented for the Paris Agreement in 2015, stipulated a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 based on the year 2005. The value for that year, at that time, was 2.1 gigatonnes of CO2e (leia CO2 equivalent, basically, a measure that sums all the greenhouse gases).
Thus, a 43% reduction would make the country reach 2030 emitting about 1.2 gigatonnes of CO2e.
Over the years and the development of methodologies to estimate the greenhouse gases emitted, the measures for the year 2005 ended up being updated in the Brazilian emission inventories.
The update of the Brazilian NDC, presented by the Bolsonaro government in December 2020, for example, was based on the third inventory, in which the emission values for 2005 were 2.8 gigatonnes of CO2and. Brazil’s target, however, did not increase the percentage of cuts at that time.
With that, the country would reach 2030 emitting about 1.6 gigatonledas of CO2and, that is, more than the commitment made initially in the Paris Agreement. Hence the term “climate cycling” or “carbon cycling”.
Brazil now has a fourth emissions inventory. In it, the greenhouse gases launched in 2005 were around 2.4 gigatonnes of CO2e.
Taking into account that the goal presented now for COP26 takes this inventory as a reference, the country will reach 2030, once again emitting around 1.2 gigatonnes of CO2and, the same amount as the initial commitment in the Paris Agreement.
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