Temperatures could exceed the record heat set in 2023 by 2024, the UN warned today, calling for drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change.

Driven by the El Nino climate phenomenon, the trend for high temperatures – which led every month between June and December 2023 to record heat – is expected to continue this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) even did a probability calculation: there is a one in three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance that 2024 will be among the five warmest years.

The year 2023 was just under 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial climate, Europe’s Copernicus agency announced late last year, confirming that it was the hottest year on record.

Average ocean surface temperatures in 2023 “remained unusually high, reaching seasonal record levels from April to December,” boosted by the return of the El Niño phenomenon, Copernicus added.