The review by 195 countries of the second part of the sixth scientific report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), a group of UN climate experts, began on Monday (14). A first part of this report was published last August and was dedicated to forecasts of global temperature rise. This second part addresses the impacts of the climate crisis on life on the planet and the necessary adaptation of our lifestyles.
Last year, UN climate experts warned that temperatures would hit the threshold of an additional 1.5°C by 2030, ten years earlier than initially expected. After more than a century and a half of economic development based on fossil fuels—coal, oil or even gas—the world has warmed by about 1.1°C compared to the pre-industrial era.
A planet without coral barriers and dying of thirst
But what does that mean in practical terms, anyway? According to experts, between 70% and 90% of coral reefs are at risk of disappearing, and this percentage would rise to 99% if the 2°C threshold were exceeded.
Rising temperatures will melt at least a third of the Himalayan glaciers before the end of the century, even with contained warming of 1.5°C. Melting glaciers in the Himalayas and the Andes Mountains will fatally threaten the water supply for millions of people living downstream.
Furthermore, if the planet reaches +2°C, this will imply heat waves in most regions. Hot days will increase almost everywhere, especially in the tropics — a sensitive area, which is not yet severely affected by variations. Cyclone-related precipitation will also increase in intensity, causing flash floods across the planet.
Sea level, if we stay at +1.5°C, will have risen from 26 cm to 77 cm by 2100, according to projections. At +2°C it would be 10 cm higher, that is, up to 10 million additional people affected. This is all until 2030.
“The challenges have never been higher.” It is with these words that IPCC President Hoesung Lee introduced the new trading session this Monday (14), during a brief online session opening two weeks of negotiations.
How to adapt?
Climate change is already affecting the planet. Disasters are on the rise — devastating heat waves, droughts, storms or floods — and affect every continent.
So what are the impacts and how can we adapt? This is the subject of this new multi-thousand-page scientific report that describes the consequences of climate change on health, food security, water scarcity, population displacement or the destruction of ecosystems.
The nearly 300 researchers who contributed the text demonstrate that life as we know it will inevitably be transformed in the short term. They also emphasize possible solutions to prepare for these impacts.
UN member countries now have one week to agree on a brief for policymakers, with a final text to be released on 28 February. Review of a third part of this report is expected in April. It will be dedicated to solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
