Global methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry, mainly due to leaks of this powerful greenhouse gas, remained at record levels in 2023 “without reason” as solutions exist and are affordable, according to analysis released today The International Energy Organization (IEO).

Energy production, linked to oil, natural gas and coal, “caused about 120 million tons of methane emissions in 2023, a slight increase over 2022,” noted the International Energy Agency, which nevertheless predicted a very soon reduction, given the changes that are beginning to take place in the sector and the commitments made at COP28.

“Another ten million tons” they come from “from bioenergy”, as is burning wood for cooking, the International Energy Agency adds in its 2024 “Global Methane Tracker” analysis.

Methane, the second most powerful greenhouse gas after CO2, is the main component of natural gas, which leaks from natural gas pipelines, coal mines and our kitchens, but is also released from cows, rice paddies or waste. About 580 million tons of methane are emitted annually, of which 60% is attributed to human activity (primarily agriculture) and almost a third to natural wetlands.

It has a much larger global warming impact than CO2, but a shorter lifetime (about ten years), responsible for about 30% of global climate change since the industrial revolution. Avoiding its emission will have a strong effect in the short term in combating the greenhouse effect.

Methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry remain close to record levels in 2019 and they are far from the necessary 75% reduction by 2030 to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as set by the Paris Climate Agreement.

“There is no reason these emissions remain so high”, complained Tim Gould, the ILO’s chief economist at a press conference.

In 2023 “about 40% could have been avoided at no net cost, as the value of the methane collected” and made available to the market was greater than the costs to cover the leaks,” the IOC explained.

A 75% cut would cost “about $170 billion, or less than 5% of the fossil fuel industry’s revenue in 2023,” he added.

About two-thirds of the methane emitted by the fossil fuel industry “comes from just ten countries,” said Christoph McGlade, an energy expert at the agency. China is “by far” first in emissions of coal-derived methane, the US leads in emissions of this greenhouse gas linked to oil and natural gas, “followed closely by Russia”.

2024, a turning year?

Among the “worrying trends”, McGlade cited large “satellite detected” leaks which “increased by more than 50% compared to 2022”, representing an additional 5 million tonnes. One of them, huge, in Kazakhstan, lasted about 200 days.

Despite this, the ILO remains optimistic: “the important policies and regulations announced in recent months, as well as the new commitments made at the UN climate conference COP28 in Dubai, may soon cause them to decrease”, pointed out the international organization, which has become an important factor in the energy transition.

At COP28, 52 oil and gas companies pledged to achieve ‘near-zero methane emissions’ in their businesses by 2030, under the watchful eyes of observers who remain distrustful of the lack of precise plans.

More than 150 countries, including recently Azerbaijan, which will host COP29, also participate in the “Global Methane Pledge” initiative, which aims to reduce emissions of this gas by 30% between 2020 and 2030.

“If all these promises are fully fulfilled and on time, they will reduce emissions by around 50% by 2030,” according to Christoph McGlade.

However these new commitments “not yet supported by detailed plans”, according to the analyst.

“2024 could mark a turning point,” noted economist Tim Gould, as “policies begin to be implemented, there’s more transparency, there’s more general awareness, and we’re better able to spot the big leaks” to stop them.

The ILO, whose estimates exceed the UN’s by 50%, also welcomes the fact that it can count on “a growing number of state-of-the-art satellites monitoring methane leaks, such as MethaneSAT”, which was successfully launched in early March by a SpaceX rocket and is under the control of New Zealand.