Transport costs more than doubled last year, 23% of export companies, compared to 2020

In the second half of 2021, the Export Expectations Index (TCI) of Greek companies moved to lower levels, compared to both the first half of the same year and the period June-December 2020. The TCI index, compiled by Exporters Association (SEVE), in collaboration with DHL, based on the findings of a survey, conducted between 25/10 / 21-26 / 11/21, on a selected sample of 250 export companies from across the country (222 responded). It stood at 115 points (TCI higher than 100 points indicates optimism and less pessimism), compared to 138.8 points in the first half of 2021 and 123 points in the second half of 2020.

More specifically, the companies’ estimates for exports moved to very positive levels, as the percentage of those who expect an increase reached 55%. Almost one in three companies expects a stable course of its exports (32%), while 13% stated that they expect a decrease (compared to 8% in the previous half-year). However, the answers regarding the international economic conditions are of great concern, as only 18% of the respondents stated that they expect their improvement. On the contrary, one in three expects a deterioration and 49% stability.

Domestic sales responses were lower than in the first half of 2021 – but with modest optimism – with 90% saying they would either increase or remain stable (42% and 48% respectively), with just 10% to expect a reduction. 77% of the sample chose stability as the answer in terms of how they estimate that the domestic economic conditions will be shaped in the future, while the answer “there will be improvement” gathered 12% of the answers, from 50% in the previous six months. The “deterioration” was chosen by 11% of the sample.

How price increases in raw materials, transport costs and energy affect Greek exports

The research also included a topical issue for the second half of 2021, which was developed with questions in three sections, concerning the increase of raw material prices and transport costs at the international level, as well as the increase of energy costs, which observed in Greece.

Regarding the prices of raw materials and the question whether they affected the exports of companies in the second half of 2021, the highest percentage was the answer “very” (39%), while in terms of the percentage during the which were affected between 2020 and 2021 and between 2019 and 2021, 80% and 77% of the sample respectively answered “0-50%”. In the second section on the increase of transport costs and whether it affected the exports of the second half of 2021, the answer “very much” was again the most prevalent (35%), while 23% and 24% stated that in 2021 transport costs increased by more than 100% compared to 2020 and 2019 respectively.

Similarly, in the last section 35% of the sample reported that the increase in energy costs greatly affected exports in the second half of 2021, while from 2020 to 2021 and from 2019 to 2021, energy costs increased by 0-50% according to 68% and 66% of the sample respectively. The sample of companies was selected through stratified sampling, according to the standards of respective surveys carried out by domestic and international organizations, while the ICAP database was used for the collection of business data.

In particular, with the initial criterion of companies with an annual turnover of over 1 million euros, the sample includes companies from primary production, industry and trade. The research was carried out by the Institute of Export Research & Studies (IEES) of SEVE, with scientific advisor Professor Ioannis Hatzidimitriou, director of the Postgraduate Program in International Business Activities at the University of Macedonia.

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