Seven years ago, the UN Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that the Earth’s temperature would not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre -industrial levels before 2040.

Two years later, the same committee revised its prediction, considering that this threshold would be exceeded between 2030 and 2035.

However, according to new data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published on Wednesday, the Earth is expected to surpass this crucial point over the next two years.

This acceleration is due to the highest of expected temperatures in recent years, to a decrease in air pollution that has resulted in transient cooling of the planet, as well as the continuing increase in greenhouse gas emissions, despite the global growth of renewable energy.

This means that the irreversible “turning points” of the climate system, such as melting ice in the Arctic or the mass collapse of coral reefs, are closer than scientists until recently.

The WMO report predicts another five years with extremely high temperatures, which, in combination with the El Ninio phenomenon, are expected to lead to the official overrun of the 1.5 degree Celsius by 2027.

“There is no way, except for geomechanics, to prevent 1.5 degree exceeding,” said Zeke Hausphar, a climate scientist and head of climate research at Stripe. Geomchanics refers to the planet’s deliberate cooling techniques, such as the injection of aerosols into the atmosphere – a practice that causes strong reactions and divides the scientific community.

Nearly a decade ago, representatives from more than 190 countries signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to make “efforts to reduce temperatures” to 1.5 ° C, following protests of island states that warned that higher temperatures would raise their temperatures.

Although there is no official definition, most scientists and the UN Government Committee on Climate Change (IPCC) understand that the goal is a long -term average temperature over a period of 20 or 30 years. (In a single year, temperatures may be temporarily rising due to the phenomenon of El Ninium or other conventional agents.) That is why, and when, in February 2024, the planet first exceeded the average of 1.5 ° C over a period of 12 months, the scientists warned that it did not warn it.

But now, with the new forecasts of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), even this little hope seems to be disappearing. According to the new analysis, it is very likely that the next five years will be recorded, on average, temperatures above 1.5 ° C. Combined with the two very hot last years and the even higher temperatures expected after 2030, 2027 is likely to be the first year where the average temperature temperatures will steadily exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius limit, the climate scientist Zik Hustere explained.

Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, the target of 1.5 ° C has been a lighthouse for the global climate movement. Protesters were shouting the slogan “Keep the 1.5 living” out of international climate conferences, while scientists warned that such a rise in temperature would cause infectious diseases, destruction of crops and extreme weather.

However, this goal was from the beginning ambitious. In the agreement, countries agreed to maintain overheating “well below 2 ° C” and to make efforts not to exceed 1.5 ° C. But even then, many scientists and experts expressed private reservations, believing that, due to the difficulty of transforming the global energy system, the most ambitious goal may prove impossible.

“There is enormous inactivity in the industrial system,” said Public Policy Professor David Victor of the University of California in San Diego, who questioned the realism of the target already before the Paris agreement. “It doesn’t change easily.”

Although renewable energy has made impressive progress in the last decade, they are just one -third of the world’s energy mix. At the same time as the use of wind, solar energy and batteries increases, the demand for electricity worldwide is at a historic high.

Failure to achieve the goal marks the end of a promising phase in the fight against climate change and the beginning of a period of uncertainty about what follows. At the same time, humanity will be more and more often confronted with extreme weather events, such as deadly heat waves, which are reinforced for every tenth of the degree of temperature.

This development is in a difficult position of politicians and negotiators, who have been trying to mobilize the global community to reduce emissions to date. UN Secretary -General Antonio Guterres, for example, has stated that the target of 1.5 ° C is “in intensive” and that “soon will be dead”. Soon, states will need to recognize this failure – and form a new goal.

“One could imagine governments saying, ‘Okay, the target of 1.5 ° C is no longer possible, but what we intend to do and where to intensify our efforts,” said David Victor. “This is an approach. Another would just be to give up. “

Some countries and scientists have laid their hopes in a concept called “overshoot” – that is, temporarily exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius and then remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to reduce the temperature. However, many researchers warn that, since countries do not even invest in renewable sources and batteries, the idea of ​​mass removal from the atmosphere is like utopia.

“Personally, I am very skeptical about the willingness of the states to spend tens of trillion dollars to deal with ‘overrun’,” Husphadad said.

An alternative could be the focus on the less ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement – the retention of overheating below 2 degrees Celsius. Although this target is more feasible, it is currently uncertain, as the planet is on 2.5 ° C.

“The more we are late, the harder it will be,” the hausphans warns. “After another decade of inactivity, we will talk about the 2 ° C target as we are now talking about 1.5 ° C.”