London, Yiannis Haniotakis

Air trips are heading towards a time of intense turbulenceas changing atmospheric conditions are expected to dramatically increase their frequency and intensity, as reported in BBC analysis. Experts are warning of a possible double or even tripling of serious incidents in the coming decades, setting new data on the safety and comfort of passengers.

“We can expect a doubling or tripling of strong turmoil in the world in the coming decades,” said Professor Paul Wiliams of the University of Reading. “For every 10 minutes of intense turmoil we are experiencing today, in the future, 20 or 30 minutes may correspond.”

This scenario raises a crucial question: as turbulence becomes stronger, they become more dangerous at the same time? While deaths from turmoil remains extremely rare – with just four recorded deaths since 1981 – the image of injuries is different. In the US alone, 207 serious injuries were recorded since 2009 that led to hospitalization. In addition, almost 40% of serious passenger injuries in 2023 were due to turmoil, according to an annual report by the International Civil Aviation Organization.

The “intense” is defined as the turmoil in the body’s body capable of ejecting a passenger from his position if not wearing a seat belt. With about 5,000 such incidents occurring a total of 35 million flights, the risk is statistically small but real.

Climate change acts as a catalyst, reinforcing two of the main causes of turmoil: thunderstorms and so -called “fresh air turbulence”.

A warmer atmosphere holds more humidity, supplying stronger thunderstorms with violent upward and downward air currents.

At the same time, the most sneaky type of turbulence, the “fresh air”, is reinforced, which appears suddenly and is invisible to radar.

The data confirms: In the last 40 years, strong turmoil over the North Atlantic have increased by 55%.

In addition to security, turmoil has a significant economic and operational impact. The cost for airlines can reach up to € 1.7 million a year for each, covering emergency controls, aircraft maintenance, allowances and costs from flight aberrations.

At the same time, the need to bypass the weather increases fuel consumption and, consequently, the environmental footprint of flights. In 2019, for example, by bad weather bypasses led to the fuel consumption corresponding to additional 19,000 tonnes of CO2.

The airline industry does not stay with crossed hands. Forecasting techniques are constantly improving, with precision for fresh air turbulence now reaching 75%. Pilots receive detailed flight plans, while radars and reports from other aircraft provide real -time information.

In the meantime, science is looking for radical solutions, as the BBC notes: from aircraft wings inspired by how the owls fly so smoothly into stormy winds, to artificial intelligence systems that “read” the turbines and adapt their flaps.

Although these futuristic technologies are decades away from widespread application, experts remain reassuring. “The aircraft are designed to withstand. You wouldn’t believe how flexible a feather is, “says former pilot Chris Kin.

For the average traveler, the solution remains simple and tested: the seat belt must be tied, not only during take -off and landing, but throughout the flight.

As a passenger who recently experienced intense turmoil told the BBC: “Now, as soon as I’m sitting, the seat belt comes in immediately. And if I need to get up, I choose the moment carefully and return to my place quickly and I tie again. “