Tzanakis sees “light” for a wall of immunity in the spring – Up to 100 dead at Christmas

The new measures announced yesterday by the Prime Minister to reduce the pandemic are moving in the right direction, as Nikos Tzanakis, Professor of Pulmonology at the University of Crete, told SKAI and the show “Simera”, making for the first time an optimistic forecast for an 80% immune wall. -85% in the Spring of 2022, when the virus will become endemic.

“The new measures have two different components. One is forcing people to get vaccinated and escape isolation. “The second should be taken as a precautionary measure, because the unvaccinated are not only intensifying the spread of the pandemic, but above all they themselves are at risk of getting sick and end up in a hospital with intubation or even dying when they have increased mobility,” he said. characteristics.

However, he pointed out that for citizens over 60 years of age, more targeted measures should be taken. “The central idea of ​​the prime minister’s speech was very correct, because he identified the problem in the over 60s many times,” he stressed. As he explained, the goal at the moment is to make the third dose immediately in order to reduce the dispersion and the fraction of the intubated and those who lose their lives – which is of course small around 5% -10% – and it concerns those who have do both doses, but due to the fact that they are removed in time from the end of their vaccination they are vulnerable and create a pressure on the health system. In this context, Mr. Tzanakis pointed out the need to open the platform earlier, at 5 months for the 80-somethings, at 5.5 months for the 70-somethings and so on.

“There is a weak point in this age group and more targeted measures should be taken, which should be personal contact. Vaccination centers have more margin and potential, as they now work at 40% of their potential. “Through IDIKA, we know their AMKA and we must address them personally, so that the personal doctors can motivate them to be vaccinated”, he stated characteristically.

“Peak” with 650 intubated and 100 dead
Regarding the course of the pandemic, the good scenario, based on the models, shows that in the first ten days of December, it will move to the prices we have today, around 7,000 cases, although some days it will be 8,000 or a little more. . However, the hard indicators of intubation and deaths will peak 2-3 weeks after the peak of the cases and will stabilize by Christmas.

“There is also a reduced chance that we will do a little better, that is, to see the peak in cases a week earlier and to be below 7,000 cases, around 6,600-6,700”, the professor noted, emphasizing that we are at a stable peak in cases.

Regarding intubation and deaths, he said that we will not see negative records compared to the previous waves, but a scenario that wants the intubators to reach 650 is possible, while he estimated that there will be no day in the deaths that will exceed 100 .

However, Mr. Tzanakis predicted that in the spring of 2022 the wall of immunity will reach 80% -85% and the pandemic will turn into an endemic, such as the flu. “The pandemic always follows a wavy pattern. If we do not follow a proper vaccination line, we will have an additional outbreak later, maybe in a month from the time we have the fall, maybe in 20 days. During the winter the virus will vaccinate those who have not been vaccinated and I believe that even at this rate to go vaccinated, we will have 1 million more vaccinated, so we will have 2 million immune people who will be well added to their existing percentage. 60% -65% and we will reach 80% -85% and the endemicity of the disease will begin in the spring of 2022 “, he concluded.