Reading the polls and worrying about the parties

By Antonis Anzoletou

The biggest polling companies have already completed the surveys of the political year that has just begun and the first conclusions have been drawn.

The scene didn’t change. ND continues to lead with a margin of safety and SYRIZA follows.

After three years in the official opposition, the party of Alexis Tsipras is looking for the way, but also for the percentages that will give it the impetus to vigorously enter the claim for power in the next polls. Despite the successive crises (pandemic, immigration in the Evros, energy, accuracy, Greek-Turkish, monitoring) the majority manages to stay at the top and the gap has not closed compared to the summer.

The differences recorded between the two parties range from 7.5% to 8.7%: MRB on behalf of OPEN 7.5%, ALCO on behalf of ALPHA 7.7%, PULSE on behalf of SKAI 8%, MARC on behalf of ANT1 8.7%.

Important events such as the pandemic, immigration and Greek-Turkish worked positively for the majority. It is a given that in major crises the people rally around the “flag” which is the respective government. From the ND, however, they talk about the effective management of all serious and events in contrast to the criticism it receives from SYRIZA.

The polls give both major parties a slight rise. What emerges is that the non-significant recovery of the official opposition helps the blue faction to hold high with the Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Alexis Tsipras to remain their strong cards.

The surveillance case, which became known at the beginning of August, did not tip the scales towards either PASOK or SYRIZA, as everyone might have expected after the resignations of Mr. Grigoriadis and Mr. Kontoleontos. A “premature polarization” seems to have been created, leading to a small increase in ND and SYRIZA.

Sources from Koumoundourou and Harilaou Trikoupi emphasize, however, that the investigation has not been completed yet. What the staffs have realized is that in the elections the economy, accuracy and the energy crisis will be at the top of the agenda. The difficult winter has worried people and this is evident from all the qualitative data of the polls. This is why a partial change in the parties’ strategy is expected after the first round of counting that has already been completed.

As far as Charilaou Trikoupis is concerned, it is very likely that the case of Mr. Androulakis’s mobile connection finally worked positively, restraining to a certain extent the small decline that the movement showed at the beginning of the summer.

Based on the above percentages of the measurements, all roads lead to the second ballots. The bridges between ND and PASOK have been cut due to surveillance. At the same time, the numbers for the progressive governance envisioned by Alexis Tsipras can hardly be obtained if SYRIZA does not emerge as the first party.

An unsettled factor for the final allocation of seats is the sixth party that will enter the Parliament. Forces not exceeding 3% will determine the result. All the measurements show that MeRA25 is marginally entering the Parliament, except for one that recorded the party of Yanis Varoufakis not being able to get the ticket again.

The percentages of both the KKE and the Hellenic Solution remain stable. The facts may change if the mobility that exists on the right of the ND leads to a new entry into the Parliament.

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