“The EU-Turkey Refugee Agreement has been in force since 2016. The deal was then considered key to solving the refugee crisis in Europe. However, Tayyip Erdogan has used it several times as a means of political pressure,” notes Bild under the title: “Collapse of the Refugee Agreement if Erdogan loses? The German newspaper notes on its website: “On May 14, elections are held in Turkey. At the moment, the leader of the Turkish opposition, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is leading the polls, with President Erdogan, as everything shows, in poor physical condition. In the event that the head of the AKP is defeated in the elections after 20 years in power, the refugee deal may collapse.

Turkey expert Eren Givercin considers a collapse of the Refugee Agreement possible: “The deal is an integral part of the election campaign. The opposition claims that Syrian refugees must return to their homeland. So it is possible that many refugees will think: “No, I don’t want to go back to Syria and try to come to Europe.” Erdogan’s main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu “seeks renegotiation of the Agreement, because there is great dissatisfaction due to the refugee burden that the population has shouldered,” the expert underlines.

Historian Rasim March predicts that after the Turkish elections the deal “will definitely be reviewed!” The Turkish-German expert explains: “There will definitely be a big one concentration of refugees and migrants at the Greek border. If Turkey’s refugee policy changes, refugees will seek to reach Europe as quickly as possible.” This means that “traffickers’ routes will return to the fore and that irregular border crossings will increase, as well as illegal immigration to the EU,” he concludes. Rashim March.”

Turkish attempts to influence politicians in Germany

“According to the Agency for the Protection of the Constitution, ahead of the Turkish elections on May 14 Ankara’s efforts increased to influence politicians in Germany” writes the magazine Der Spiegel under the title “Apparent systematic efforts”. The German magazine points out: “Representatives of the Turkish government are said to have targeted politicians in North Rhine-Westphalia in order to influence discussions and decisions in Turkey’s favor, both at the local and federal level.

Officials from the consulates general in Cologne, Dusseldorf, Essen and Münster are said to have approached politicians, most of whom have Turkish roots. The contacts recorded so far by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in North Rhine-Westphalia exceed ten. “It is clear that these are systematic efforts,” says the head of the Service in North Rhine-Westphalia Jürgen Kaiser. In contacts with politicians, consulate officials address both origin and national sentiment, adds the German official.

The aim of the approach is for politicians to appear friendly to Turkey and to act in the interest of Ankara, when it comes to the conflict in Armenia, commemorations, school lessons or controversial arrests in Turkey, for example. Recently the Turkish consulate general in Dusseldorf tried to influence a request in the parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia regarding the provision of aid to the earthquake victims in Turkey. Targeted members of local parliament are said to have been approached during the parliamentary process.

“When individual MPs are approached in a clearly informal way, then we take for granted a illegal, undemocratic exercise of influence”, Jürgen Kaiser explains: “Members of Parliament must decide freely and not according to the will of Ankara.” According to the head of the North Rhine-Westphalia Constitution Protection Service, his service is holding awareness talks with politicians to inform them about Turkey’s actions.