By Antonis Anzoletou

Leaving a gap of about 20 days for the result of the previous ballot to be reflected in the world and for emotions to settle down, the Pulse conducted the first survey after the May 21 election. The questions to the 1,308 adults with the right to vote were formulated from June 8-12 and the conclusion is one: The parties that got the ticket for the Parliament show a small drop in their percentages. As a general conclusion, the expected changes, based on the data so far, will not be significant. For each party, of course 1-2 points up or down can make a difference.

In the intention to vote by recall on the valid n New Democracy reaches 39%, SYRIZA 18%, PASOK 11.5%, KKE 6.5%, Hellenic Solution 3.5%, NIKI 3.5% and Freedom Sailing 4%. First conclusions? For New Democracy, which is trying to get a strong majority, 39% seems to be a good starting point in order to avoid “mishaps”. The same does not apply to SYRIZA, whose goal is not to fall below the “psychological threshold” of 20%. PASOK maintains its percentages and therefore further closes the gap with the party of Alexis Tsipras, while the KKE and the Hellenic Solution seem to be losing strength. The news is one thing: The new Parliament will be seven-party, cutting seats from the first party. The “removals” of parliamentary candidates from the first positions of their ballot papers does not seem to affect the Freedom Movement, nor Niki. Far from the 3%, which gives the ticket to the Plenary Hall, MeRA25 (1.5%) was registered.

Even more than in the previous elections, the parties’ attention is focused on abstention. Will New Democracy voters take self-reliance for granted and stay away in favor of summer sunbeds? The same anxiety exists in SYRIZA. Could it be that the supporters of the party have been disappointed by the 20% of the first round and, in the absence of interest in the first place, abstain on the Sunday of the elections. 82% of the respondents state that “definitely yes” they will vote and 10% “probably yes”. Perhaps the fact that for ND, SYRIZA and the PASOK they answer that 98% – 96% – 94% of those who intend to choose them will definitely vote.

The main question is what those who will come to the screens will vote. 91% of those who chose New Democracy in May declare that they will re-support the party, respectively SYRIZA 80% and PASOK 77%. Demobilization is the great “enemy” of the political forces in such a close election process that is actually done on different terms. Because with simple analogy and other considerations, the voters came to the polls on May 21 and the dispute today is completely different. The stake of the previous popular verdict was the “governance model” with the New Democracy prevailing state by state. Self-reliance defeated progressive governance, and almost no one thought a majority was likely to emerge. Now the issue is the power in the Parliament of the government that will be formed, as it will be called upon to legislate for the next four years.

Based on the responses to the Pulse poll, published by , the “gray zone”, which will form a large percentage, the final result moves to 10.5%. It is recalled that according to the exit polls in the previous elections, around 20% of those who voted decided what they would choose almost inside the screen. The pollsters estimate that this number will be smaller in 11 days from today, not excluding the increase in the percentage of abstention. Nevertheless, hesitant voters are very likely to overturn, to some extent, the existing balances.