While he seemed politically powerless, Mr Emmanuel Macron calls elections. Does this regain the initiative of the movements or does it open wide the door to the Far Right? “It’s a little strange,” says Jean-Paul, a Parisian, on the microphone of DW. “It was a big surprise that Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve Parliament and go to elections. I don’t know what to think…” He’s not the only one who feels embarrassed. On Sunday night, as soon as the first results of the European elections were announced, President Macron “caught the French people asleep” – perhaps even his own party – by announcing early elections, which will be held in two rounds, on June 30 and on July 7.

“I cannot pretend that nothing has happened,” the French president said in his speech. What happened was that Macron’s “Renaissance” party was reduced to 15% in Sunday’s European elections, while Marine Le Pen’s far-right “Rassemblement National” – led by Jordan Bardela from 2022 – collected 30% of the votes. Maybe Macron’s decision for early elections was the right one after all, says Jean-Paul. “It would be very difficult for him to continue like this, it is good that they clear things up. And if the French themselves want to be ruled by the Far Right, that is their choice. If they want to continue with centrist political forces, let them decide.”

A coalition of centrist forces?

Since Monday, Macron’s “Renaissance” has appealed to other political forces in the Center to join forces with it, raising a rampart to the advance of the far-right RN party. If they fail, Emmanuel Macron will be forced to nominate the far-right Bardela as the new prime minister, the fifth since Macron himself took office.

Meanwhile, Europe is trying to understand the French president’s motivations. Mujaba Rahman, an analyst at Eurasia Group, believes that “it is either a calculated risk move or a crazy bet.” Probably Macron hopes that in the national elections the participation rate will be higher and the citizens will think more soberly, comments Rahman on platform X. It is known that sometimes in the European elections the voters punish anti-popular decisions of the government. But Macron, who has approval ratings as high as 65% in opinion polls, could be dragged into an election anyway as he tries to pass the 2025 budget. Since his second term at the Elysees began in 2022, he essentially presides with a minority government and faces obstacles when trying to pass his agenda. That is why he sometimes tries to speed up developments by resorting to clauses of the Constitution that bypass Parliament.

Will it defy the polls?

As Pavel Zerka, an analyst at the European Council for Foreign Relations, points out to DW, in this case the French president would be forced to spend another three years “with the election result constantly burdening him” and with Marine Le Pen “to question his democratic legitimacy and demand new elections from time to time”. So Macron, known for his confidence, visionary thinking and grandiose rhetoric, chose to counterattack, launching a charm offensive all the way to the polls.

As analyst Mujabba Rahman estimates, “Macron believes he can defy the polls, putting the French in front of the dilemma of either supporting the establishment and the pro-European and pro-Ukrainian forces of the Center, or risking a far-right government that is clearly anti- European stance and has supported Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

Perhaps the French president is following the example of the socialist Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who in 2023 was politically rebaptized in early elections. But if Macron’s bet turns out to be a boomerang, warns Pavel Zerka, only Le Pen and Bardela will be winners.

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou