By Antonis Anzoletos
In July 2016, Alexis Tsipras fulfilled his commitment to the introduction of simple analog. Only the expanded majority of 200 deputies for the abolition of the bonus of 50 seats from the next contest was not achieved, since the proposal was supported by SYRIZA, ANEL, the Union of Centers, the KKE and two more deputies (179 in total). The New Democracy, the Democratic Alliance and Potami had voted against.
SYRIZA at that time was accused of never being able to overcome the syndrome of the small party. It was obvious, of course, that in a memorandum period he wanted to leave his progressive imprint. Nevertheless, looking back, the left has always been in favor of simple proportional representation as a means of restraining voters who were “moving” to the center at the last minute.
What the gladiators of power see is that in the next electoral contest the formation of a government is an almost impossible task. What would be the correlations with the simple analog based on the results of 2019? With the simple proportional representation, each party elects as many deputies as the electoral measure fits in the number of ballots received. The electoral measure is the quotient of the division of the valid ballots (of the parties that enter the Parliament) with the number of seats in the Parliament.
Therefore, based on the results of July 7, 2019, the percentage of ND with the system of simple analog would be calculated as follows:
300 * 2,251,426: 5,192,767 = 130.07 seats
Therefore the distribution in the last election without the bonus would be:
SW: 130 deputies (out of 158)
SYRIZA: 103 deputies (out of 86)
KINAL: 26 deputies (out of 22)
KKE: 17 deputies (out of 15)
HELLENIC SOLUTION: 12 deputies (out of 10)
Day 25: 11 deputies (out of 9)
The arithmetic of simple analog clearly reflects the governance difficulties caused by this system. It is based almost exclusively on collaborations. ND with almost 40% could form a government with KINAL, while SYRIZA with the 31.5% that it recorded with the assistance of KINAL and MERA25 would reach only 140 deputies.
Things are even more difficult with today’s data. Based on the latest PULSE poll, on behalf of SKAI TV, made a calculation of the deputies that each party would have in the next electoral contest in conditions of simple proportional representation. The percentages of the parties that do not seem to enter the Parliament together with the undecided are deducted from the specific measurement: Greeks (2%) + Creation (1%) + another party (5.5%) + undecided (8.5%) = 17%
PULSE POLL (March 2022)
Intention to vote – by reduction on the valid ones
Simple Proportional Members
SW 32% 116
SYRIZA 23.5% 85
KINAL 14% 50
KKE 6% 22
SOLUTION 4.5% 16
DAY25 3% 11
It is obvious that with the current poll numbers (and given that the ND-SYRIZA coexistence has been ruled out) the second party needs the support of even three parties in order to achieve the majority of 151 deputies.
It is recalled that the next electoral contest will be conducted with the electoral system voted in January 2020. If the first party receives more than or equal to 25% of the valid ballots, then it receives a bonus of 20 seats, while the remaining 280 seats are distributed proportionally among eligible party seats. From 25%, for every 0.5%, the first party gets an extra one seat bonus, while the maximum of 50 seats gets it if its percentage is at 40%.
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