The International Space Station (ISS) is expected to continue operating until 2028, perhaps 2030, but it will be very difficult to maintain it after that. NASA, however, wants to preserve a constant presence in low Earth orbit beyond that period and is betting on trading partners, with their own orbital complexes, to achieve that goal. On Thursday (2), the American space agency signed a contract with three companies for the initial development of their private orbital station projects, in a total investment of more than half a billion dollars.
The companies Blue Origin (US$ 130 million), Nanoracks (US$ 160 million) and Northrop Grumman (US$ 125.6 million) were contemplated. They join Axiom, which has had a contract with NASA since February 2020 (US$ 140 million) to launch a commercial module and couple it to the ISS. After up to seven years there, it will be uncoupled and will serve as the base for a complete company station.
With that, there are four different initiatives to try to succeed, with American government support, at least one project for a private space station. These are still small initial steps – none of the orbital complexes will cost less than a few billion dollars – but they point towards the future of occupation of the lower Earth orbit, as NASA sets its eyes on future missions to the Moon and the Mars.
It is too early to say whether they will prosper. On the one hand, NASA’s efforts to try to turn the American side of the International Space Station over to private enterprise have failed (the cost of maintenance is prohibitively high to provide returns to investors). On the other hand, commercial programs to transport cargo and crew to low earth orbit have thrived, with multiple suppliers and customers beyond NASA (SpaceX recently marketed a flight to orbit for the Inspiration4 initiative, and Axiom has already contracted flights to the ISS itself. with its own crew). The dream is to replicate this success by creating multiple low-orbit destinations, keeping it permanently occupied beyond 2030 (since 2000, not a day has passed without NASA having at least one astronaut in orbit, thanks to the ISS).
The pressure is even greater as competition grows. China only began construction of its Tiangong space station in April 2021, and the project is expected to go well beyond 2030.
The obvious alternative to the commercial station program would be simply to try to keep the International Space Station in operation longer beyond 2030. But it won’t be easy or cheap, and some say it’s not feasible. The complex already has high mileage (construction in orbit started in 1998). The main Russian module, the Zvezda, is already showing cracks and signs of wear. And the relationship between the US and Russia already presents the same problems, with constant exchanges of accusations and friction even in the space area, where the two powers used to understand each other since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Russians are also beginning to approach China for future space projects and will certainly sell dearly any new extensions to the ISS program. The end of an era is approaching.
WHAT’S COMING THERE
Axiom’s plan is to attach three modules to the International Space Station, with the first one in 2024 (to be checked). Upon retirement from the orbital complex, the trio could decouple (perhaps taking the Canadarm2 with it, the Canadian robotic arm of the ISS) and become an independent station, with new modules going forward, becoming the Axiom Station, in the 2030s.
Another very credible proposal is that of Nanoracks. The company, which so far focuses on commercializing space for experiments aboard the ISS, has partnered with traditional Lockheed Martin and Voyager Space to build its own station. Called Starlab, it would basically consist of a single large inflatable habitable module (such as those developed by Bigelow Aerospace, another company that already aspired to have its own station and even installed one of these modules at the station in 2016), coupled with a module for propulsion and assembly of solar panels. The plan was to launch the system into space in 2027, and it would be able to house four astronauts and payload comparable to that of the ISS.
The projects of Northrop Grumman, another traditional giant, and Blue Origin, a company owned by Jeff Bezos, are more ambitious, involving stations with several modules and constant expansion, with several commercial partners. Northrop hopes to exploit the technology developed on Cygnus freighters, currently providing transport to the ISS, to create the modules. Blue’s is on the verge of megalomaniac, with multiple partners (it is Blue’s tradition to form consortia, which certainly helps in lobbying) such as Sierra Space and Boeing, although it starts operations small, which can work.
Absent from this conversation is SpaceX, by Elon Musk. The company even proposed a concept of its own space station based on its super rocket Starship, but NASA didn’t. A sensible choice, given that the company has already signed a much larger contract (US$2.9 billion) to develop the Starship with the aim of taking astronauts back to the Moon, which should happen, if all goes well, on Monday half of this decade.
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